Language:English
Valencia Basket v Real Madrid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valencia Basket (Local)
Prediction 50.32%1.99fair odd
EV +0.642%
Edge +0.321%
Kelly +0.642%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%50.41%50.39%51.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.882.0055.56%53.07%53.19%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Madrid (Visit)
Prediction 49.68%2.01fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.572%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.99
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.18%49.59%49.61%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.901.911.9954.64%52.51%52.36%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valencia Basket (Local): 50.32%; Real Madrid (Visit): 49.68%. For Valencia Basket (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.642%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +0.642%E +0.321%K +0.642%G +0.004% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.61%EV -1.87%E -0.961%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.39%EV -4.62%E -2.40%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -1.87%E -0.961%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -2.88%E -1.49%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-22 17:28 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -2.88%E -1.49%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -6.11%E -3.23%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -6.11%E -3.23%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.89%E -2.59%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.62%E -2.40%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -4.89%E -2.59%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -6.60%E -3.51%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -3.62%E -1.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -3.62%E -1.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.12%E -2.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.62%E -2.40%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.62%E -2.40%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.60%E -3.51%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.60%E -3.51%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV -5.90%E -3.15%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV -1.14%E -0.572%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.90%E -3.15%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.13%E -1.60%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.90%E -3.15%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.90%E -3.15%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -6.40%E -3.44%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -1.64%E -0.826%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -6.40%E -3.44%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -6.91%E -3.73%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -1.14%E -0.572%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-22 13:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.91%E -3.73%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-22 16:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.91%E -3.73%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.09%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 10:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.60%E -3.51%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 17:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -8.42%E -4.62%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -3.62%E -1.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.42%E -5.23%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-22 10:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 0.5% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 0.5% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01% | 1.1% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14% | 1.3% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89% | 1.8% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.14% | 11.7% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |