L’École des cotesFrançais
Valencia Basket v Real Madrid
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Valencia Basket (Local)
Prévision 50.32%1.99cote équitable
EV +0.642%
Avantage +0.321%
Kelly +0.642%
Croissance +0.004%
avec la cote maximale 2.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.78%50.41%50.39%51.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.801.881.882.0055.56%53.07%53.19%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Real Madrid (Visiteur)
Prévision 49.68%2.01cote équitable
EV -1.14%
Avantage -0.572%
Kelly -1.15%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.99
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.18%49.59%49.61%52.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.831.901.911.9954.64%52.51%52.36%50.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
1 opérateur propose un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.
Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +0.642%E +0.321%K +0.642%G +0.004% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.61%EV -1.87%E -0.961%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.39%EV -4.62%E -2.40%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Everygame | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -1.87%E -0.961%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -2.88%E -1.49%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-22 17:28 |
| DraftKings | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -2.88%E -1.49%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -6.11%E -3.23%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| BetMGM | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:19 |
| 888sport | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Betway | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Unibet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| BetRivers | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -3.89%E -2.03%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -6.11%E -3.23%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Coolbet | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.89%E -2.59%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.62%E -2.40%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -4.89%E -2.59%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -6.60%E -3.51%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -3.62%E -1.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| ReBet | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -3.62%E -1.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| FanDuel | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.12%E -2.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.62%E -2.40%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Betsson | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.62%E -2.40%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| TABtouch | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.60%E -3.51%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| GTbets | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.40%E -2.87%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.60%E -3.51%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV -5.90%E -3.15%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV -1.14%E -0.572%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Fanatics | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.90%E -3.15%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.13%E -1.60%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.90%E -3.15%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.90%E -3.15%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -6.40%E -3.44%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -1.64%E -0.826%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| SportsBet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -6.40%E -3.44%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -6.91%E -3.73%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -1.14%E -0.572%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-22 13:29 |
| TAB | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.91%E -3.73%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-22 16:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.91%E -3.73%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.09%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| theScore Bet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 10:00 |
| PlayUp | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.60%E -3.51%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Neds | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 17:19 |
| Coral | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -8.42%E -4.62%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -3.62%E -1.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.42%E -5.23%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.11%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-22 10:09 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 0.5% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 0.5% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Matchbook | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01% | 1.1% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14% | 1.3% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Smarkets | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89% | 1.8% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (1)
Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.
| Opérateur | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.14% | 11.7% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |