Language:English
Real Madrid v Valencia Basket
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Real Madrid (Local)
Prediction 69.32%1.44fair odd
EV +1.20%
Edge +0.822%
Kelly +2.61%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 1.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.53%69.15%69.52%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.381.381.4676.92%72.53%72.46%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valencia Basket (Visit)
Prediction 30.68%3.26fair odd
EV +1.26%
Edge +0.382%
Kelly +0.548%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.57%30.85%30.48%34.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.033.003.3037.04%33.00%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 69.32%; Valencia Basket (Visit): 30.68%. For Valencia Basket (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.26%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.20%EV +1.20%E +0.822%K +2.61%G +0.031% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%EV -12.24%E -4.28%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-12 18:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -0.186%E -0.129%K -0.423%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -12.55%E -4.40%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 11:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -0.186%E -0.129%K -0.423%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -12.85%E -4.53%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -1.57%E -1.11%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -1.57%E -1.11%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -1.57%E -1.11%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -11.01%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 22:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.63%E -4.04%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.63%E -4.04%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 13:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -14.08%E -5.03%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-12 11:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-12 11:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-12 11:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -3.65%E -2.63%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.65%E -2.63%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-10 20:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 11:48 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -5.80%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.01%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 03:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -5.04%E -3.68%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -10.40%E -3.56%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.274%E -0.084%K -0.122%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 19:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-12 13:50 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.68%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.32%EV -9.17%E -3.10%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-12 10:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-12 06:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -7.12%E -5.31%K -20.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 19:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 19:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -8.50%E -6.44%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007% | 6.1% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.89%E -7.61%K -32.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 2.2% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13% | 3.8% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 19:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.02% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.12% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87% | 12.0% | 2026-03-12 11:45 |