默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Real Madrid v Valencia Basket

开赛时间： 2026-03-12 19:45 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

47 家博彩公司 (18 家纳入分析 )

69%

31%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Real Madrid (主队)

预测 69.32%1.44公平赔率

EV +1.20%

优势 +0.822%

Kelly +2.61%

增长率 +0.031%

假设最高赔率为 1.46

博彩公司预测分布

65.53%69.15%69.52%71.43%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.301.381.381.4676.92%72.53%72.46%68.49%最小值均值中位数最大值

Valencia Basket (客队)

预测 30.68%3.26公平赔率

EV +1.26%

优势 +0.382%

Kelly +0.548%

增长率 +0.007%

假设最高赔率为 3.30

博彩公司预测分布

28.57%30.85%30.48%34.47%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.703.033.003.3037.04%33.00%33.33%30.30%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Real Madrid (主队)：69.32%；Valencia Basket (客队)：30.68%。对于“Valencia Basket (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.26。当时有5家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.30，对应+1.26%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (47 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
1xBet🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 66.20%EV +1.20%E +0.822%K +2.61%G +0.031%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%EV -12.24%E -4.28%K -6.58%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-03-12 18:45
BetMGM🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -0.186%E -0.129%K -0.423%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -12.55%E -4.40%K -6.78%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-12 11:44
Marathon Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -0.186%E -0.129%K -0.423%G +0.000%	2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -12.85%E -4.53%K -6.99%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-12 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -1.57%E -1.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-12 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -1.57%E -1.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-12 19:40
BetUS🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -1.57%E -1.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-12 19:40
DraftKings🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-12 13:30
Unibet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-12 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-12 13:30
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-12 13:30
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-12 13:30
Svenska Spel🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-12 13:30
ATG (SE)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-12 13:30
BetRivers🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -11.01%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-12 13:30
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-11 22:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.63%E -4.04%K -6.18%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-12 19:40
TABtouch🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.63%E -4.04%K -6.18%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-12 13:30
TAB🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -14.08%E -5.03%K -7.82%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-12 19:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-12 11:40
Neds🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-12 11:40
Coral🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-12 11:45
Pinnacle🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -3.65%E -2.63%K -9.36%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-03-12 19:40
William Hill🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.65%E -2.63%K -9.36%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-10 20:19
Bovada🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-12 11:48
Coolbet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -5.80%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-12 19:40
PlayUp🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.01%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-12 03:59
GTbets🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -5.04%E -3.68%K -13.62%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -10.40%E -3.56%K -5.42%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-12 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.274%E -0.084%K -0.122%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-12 19:40
BoyleSports🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-12 19:39
ReBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-12 19:40
Everygame🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-12 13:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-12 19:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-12 19:40
NordicBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-12 19:40
Betsson🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-12 19:40
Fanatics🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-12 19:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.68%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000%	2.96I 33.78%NM 31.32%EV -9.17%E -3.10%K -4.68%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-12 10:20
Codere (IT)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -6.42%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-12 06:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -7.12%E -5.31%K -20.93%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-12 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007%	5.5%	2026-03-12 19:35
888sport🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007%	5.5%	2026-03-12 19:40
FanDuel🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007%	5.5%	2026-03-12 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007%	5.5%	2026-03-12 19:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-12 19:40
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-12 19:40
SportsBet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -8.50%E -6.44%K -26.58%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007%	6.1%	2026-03-12 19:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.89%E -7.61%K -32.97%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.822%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-12 19:40

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%	1.2%	2026-03-12 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%	1.2%	2026-03-12 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93%	3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%	2.2%	2026-03-12 19:40
Smarkets◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%	3.8%	2026-03-12 19:40
Matchbook◎	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%	4.8%	2026-03-12 19:40

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 62.02%	2.87I 34.84%NM 31.12%	13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%	12.0%	2026-03-12 11:45