Language:English
Olympiacos v Real Madrid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Olympiacos (Local)
Prediction 65.39%1.53fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -5.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.29%65.42%65.45%66.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4971.43%69.30%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Madrid (Visit)
Prediction 34.61%2.89fair odd
EV -0.331%
Edge -0.115%
Kelly -0.176%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.26%34.58%34.55%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.742.752.8838.46%36.56%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Olympiacos (Local): 65.39%; Real Madrid (Visit): 34.61%. For Real Madrid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -0.331%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.56%E -1.72%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 13:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.22%E -2.17%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-06 16:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.22%E -2.17%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-06 16:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.68%EV -3.22%E -2.17%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.32%EV -6.21%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.22%E -2.17%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 17:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.87%E -2.63%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-07 17:38 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.87%E -2.63%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.87%E -2.63%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.87%E -2.63%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.53%E -3.10%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 17:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -0.331%E -0.115%K -0.176%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-07 09:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -1.02%E -0.358%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-07 17:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -3.79%E -1.36%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 13:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -4.14%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 14:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 13:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.29%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 35.71%EV -9.67%E -3.71%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-07 17:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -2.41%E -0.854%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 12:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 14:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 17:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -6.21%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 14:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.02%E -3.85%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-07 17:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.37%E -0.480%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 12:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.37%E -0.480%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 17:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 17:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-06 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.26%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.74%EV -8.98%E -3.42%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-06 13:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.26%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.74%EV -8.98%E -3.42%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-06 13:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.33%E -3.56%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-04 21:38 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64% | 1.8% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94% | 2.3% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.89% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93% | 11.0% | 2026-04-06 19:40 |