La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Olympiacos v Real Madrid
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Olympiacos (Local)
Predicción 65.39%1.53momio equitativo
EV -2.56%
Ventaja -1.72%
Kelly -5.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.49
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.29%65.42%65.45%66.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.401.441.441.4971.43%69.30%69.44%67.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Real Madrid (Visitante)
Predicción 34.61%2.89momio equitativo
EV -0.331%
Ventaja -0.115%
Kelly -0.176%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.88
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.26%34.58%34.55%35.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.742.752.8838.46%36.56%36.36%34.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.56%E -1.72%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 13:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.22%E -2.17%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-06 16:04 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.22%E -2.17%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-06 16:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.68%EV -3.22%E -2.17%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.32%EV -6.21%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 18:00 |
| William Hill | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.22%E -2.17%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 17:24 |
| Bovada | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.87%E -2.63%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-07 17:38 |
| 888sport | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.87%E -2.63%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.87%E -2.63%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.87%E -2.63%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.53%E -3.10%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 17:24 |
| 1xBet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -0.331%E -0.115%K -0.176%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-07 09:10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -1.02%E -0.358%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-07 17:40 |
| Unibet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| Coolbet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -3.79%E -1.36%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 13:19 |
| ReBet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -4.14%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| BetMGM | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 14:14 |
| theScore Bet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| PlayUp | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 13:50 |
| BetUS | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.29%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 35.71%EV -9.67%E -3.71%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-07 17:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -2.41%E -0.854%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 12:59 |
| Betway | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 14:10 |
| BetRivers | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 17:40 |
| GTbets | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -6.21%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 14:20 |
| TAB | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| Everygame | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.02%E -3.85%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-07 17:30 |
| Fanatics | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| TABtouch | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| Betsson | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.37%E -0.480%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 12:59 |
| NordicBet | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.37%E -0.480%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 13:00 |
| SportsBet | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-07 17:39 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 17:24 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 17:25 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 17:30 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-06 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.26%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.74%EV -8.98%E -3.42%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-06 13:15 |
| Neds | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.26%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.74%EV -8.98%E -3.42%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-06 13:19 |
| Coral | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.33%E -3.56%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-04 21:38 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
| Smarkets | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64% | 1.8% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
| Matchbook | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94% | 2.3% | 2026-04-07 18:10 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.89% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93% | 11.0% | 2026-04-06 19:40 |