Language:English
FC Bayern München v Fenerbahce SK
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Bayern München (Local)
Prediction 30.89%3.24fair odd
EV +5.02%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +2.09%
Growth +0.105%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%30.75%30.88%34.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.043.003.4037.04%32.87%33.33%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fenerbahce SK (Visit)
Prediction 69.11%1.45fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.818%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.62%69.25%69.12%72.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.371.381.4377.52%72.85%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Bayern München (Local): 30.89%; Fenerbahce SK (Visit): 69.11%. For FC Bayern München (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.02%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +5.02%E +1.48%K +2.09%G +0.105% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -10.15%E -7.81%K -33.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +5.02%E +1.48%K +2.09%G +0.105% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -10.85%E -8.41%K -37.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV +0.387%E +0.119%K +0.172%G +0.001% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -10.85%E -8.41%K -37.40%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -1.77%E -0.558%K -0.814%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -3.93%E -2.83%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-01 16:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.63%EV -4.86%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -2.55%E -1.81%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%EV -6.10%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.47%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-01 16:58 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -6.72%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.16%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-01 16:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-01 16:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -15.06%E -5.48%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -1.17%E -0.818%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.06%E -5.48%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.38%EV -16.29%E -6.01%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -16.60%E -6.15%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 1.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 1.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 1.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93% | 2.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58% | 2.7% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.89% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.22% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89% | 11.6% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |