默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

FC Bayern München v Fenerbahce SK

开赛时间： 2026-04-01 17:05 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

45 家博彩公司 (17 家纳入分析 )

31%

69%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

FC Bayern München (主队)

预测 30.89%3.24公平赔率

EV +5.02%

优势 +1.48%

Kelly +2.09%

增长率 +0.105%

假设最高赔率为 3.40

博彩公司预测分布

27.51%30.75%30.88%34.38%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.703.043.003.4037.04%32.87%33.33%29.41%最小值均值中位数最大值

Fenerbahce SK (客队)

预测 69.11%1.45公平赔率

EV -1.17%

优势 -0.818%

Kelly -2.72%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.43

博彩公司预测分布

65.62%69.25%69.12%72.49%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.291.371.381.4377.52%72.85%72.46%69.93%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：FC Bayern München (主队)：30.89%；Fenerbahce SK (客队)：69.11%。对于“FC Bayern München (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.24。当时有7家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.40，对应+5.02%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (45 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
DraftKings🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +5.02%E +1.48%K +2.09%G +0.105%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -10.15%E -7.81%K -33.85%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-01 17:00
theScore Bet🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +5.02%E +1.48%K +2.09%G +0.105%	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -10.85%E -8.41%K -37.40%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-01 17:00
William Hill🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-04-01 17:00
888sport🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-01 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-01 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-01 16:59
Paddy Power🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV +0.387%E +0.119%K +0.172%G +0.001%	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -10.85%E -8.41%K -37.40%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-01 17:00
SportsBet🎯	3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -1.77%E -0.558%K -0.814%G +0.000%	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-01 17:00
1xBet🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -3.93%E -2.83%K -10.09%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-04-01 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-04-01 17:00
FanDuel🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-01 17:00
NordicBet🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-01 16:59
Betsson🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-01 16:59
ReBet🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-04-01 16:59
BoyleSports🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-01 16:59
Coolbet🎯	3.08I 32.47%NM 30.63%EV -4.86%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-01 17:00
Pinnacle🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -2.55%E -1.81%K -6.23%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-04-01 16:59
Winamax (DE)🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-01 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯	3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%EV -6.10%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.47%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-04-01 16:58
GTbets🎯	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -6.72%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-01 16:59
Unibet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-04-01 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-04-01 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-04-01 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-04-01 17:00
Betway🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-04-01 16:59
ATG (SE)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-04-01 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-04-01 17:00
Fanatics🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-01 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-01 16:59
Winamax (FR)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-01 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-01 16:59
Neds🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-01 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-04-01 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-04-01 17:00
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.96I 33.78%NM 31.16%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-04-01 16:58
Bovada🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.55%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-04-01 16:55
BetRivers🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.55%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-01 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-01 17:00
TABtouch🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-01 17:00
TAB🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-01 17:00
PlayUp🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-01 17:00
BetMGM🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -15.06%E -5.48%K -8.60%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -1.17%E -0.818%K -2.72%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-01 16:59
Everygame🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.06%E -5.48%K -8.60%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-01 16:59
BetUS🎯	2.71I 36.90%NM 34.38%EV -16.29%E -6.01%K -9.53%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-04-01 16:59
Coral🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -16.60%E -6.15%K -9.77%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-01 17:00

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%	1.2%	2026-04-01 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%	1.2%	2026-04-01 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%	1.2%	2026-04-01 17:00
Smarkets◎	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%	1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%	2.2%	2026-04-01 17:00
Matchbook◎	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%	1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58%	2.7%	2026-04-01 16:59

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 30.89%	1.44I 69.44%NM 62.22%	13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%	11.6%	2026-04-01 17:00