La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
FC Bayern München v Fenerbahce SK
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
FC Bayern München (Local)
Predicción 30.89%3.24momio equitativo
EV +5.02%
Ventaja +1.48%
Kelly +2.09%
Crecimiento +0.105%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.51%30.75%30.88%34.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.043.003.4037.04%32.87%33.33%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Fenerbahce SK (Visitante)
Predicción 69.11%1.45momio equitativo
EV -1.17%
Ventaja -0.818%
Kelly -2.72%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.43
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.62%69.25%69.12%72.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.291.371.381.4377.52%72.85%72.46%69.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +5.02%E +1.48%K +2.09%G +0.105% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -10.15%E -7.81%K -33.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| theScore Bet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +5.02%E +1.48%K +2.09%G +0.105% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -10.85%E -8.41%K -37.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| William Hill | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| 888sport | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.93%E +0.585%K +0.840%G +0.016% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Paddy Power | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV +0.387%E +0.119%K +0.172%G +0.001% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -10.85%E -8.41%K -37.40%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| SportsBet | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -1.77%E -0.558%K -0.814%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| 1xBet | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -3.93%E -2.83%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-01 16:50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| FanDuel | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| NordicBet | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Betsson | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.70%E -0.858%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| ReBet | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| BoyleSports | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Coolbet | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.63%EV -4.86%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -2.55%E -1.81%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%EV -6.10%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.47%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-01 16:58 |
| GTbets | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -6.72%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Unibet | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Betway | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Fanatics | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Neds | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.33%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.16%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -7.39%E -5.52%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-01 16:58 |
| Bovada | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-01 16:55 |
| BetRivers | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| TABtouch | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| TAB | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| PlayUp | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.42%E -3.59%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.63%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| BetMGM | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -15.06%E -5.48%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -1.17%E -0.818%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Everygame | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.06%E -5.48%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| BetUS | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.38%EV -16.29%E -6.01%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -1.86%E -1.31%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
| Coral | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -16.60%E -6.15%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 1.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 1.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 1.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Smarkets | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93% | 2.2% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |
| Matchbook | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58% | 2.7% | 2026-04-01 16:59 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.89% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.22% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89% | 11.6% | 2026-04-01 17:00 |