默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies

开赛时间： 2026-09-15 22:46 UTC

最终结果： Washington Nationals 6–3 Philadelphia Phillies

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

66 家博彩公司 (21 家纳入分析 )

34%

66%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Washington Nationals (主队)

预测 33.90%2.95公平赔率

EV +1.69%

优势 +0.562%

Kelly +0.843%

增长率 +0.014%

假设最高赔率为 3.00

博彩公司预测分布

31.82%33.74%33.96%35.84%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.602.842.853.0038.46%35.20%35.09%33.33%最小值均值中位数最大值

Philadelphia Phillies (客队)

预测 66.10%1.51公平赔率

EV -1.50%

优势 -1.01%

Kelly -3.07%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.49

博彩公司预测分布

64.16%66.26%66.04%68.18%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.361.431.441.4973.53%69.81%69.44%67.11%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Washington Nationals (主队)：33.90%；Philadelphia Phillies (客队)：66.10%。对于“Washington Nationals (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.95。当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.00，对应+1.69%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (66 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
Fliff🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +1.69%E +0.562%K +0.843%G +0.014%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-15 22:45
BetRivers🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 22:35
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 22:35
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.79%E -4.82%K -16.57%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-15 22:35
Casumo🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.79%E -4.82%K -16.57%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-15 22:35
Unibet🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.79%E -4.82%K -16.57%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-15 22:35
ATG (SE)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.79%E -4.82%K -16.57%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-15 22:35
betPARX🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.79%E -4.82%K -16.57%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-15 22:35
Bally Bet🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.79%E -4.82%K -16.57%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-15 22:35
TABtouch🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.009%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 22:35
Pinnacle🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%EV -1.70%E -0.587%K -0.897%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%EV -2.16%E -1.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-09-15 22:20
ReBet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.70%E -0.587%K -0.897%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-15 21:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.70%E -0.587%K -0.897%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-15 21:14
FanDuel🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.70%E -0.587%K -0.897%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.47%E -3.83%K -12.72%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 22:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.70%E -0.587%K -0.897%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.47%E -3.83%K -12.72%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 21:10
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.70%E -0.587%K -0.897%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-15 22:35
Virgin Bet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.70%E -0.587%K -0.897%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-15 22:35
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.70%E -0.587%K -0.897%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-15 21:40
SportsBet🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%EV -2.04%E -0.707%K -1.08%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-15 22:45
GTbets🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94%EV -2.38%E -0.827%K -1.27%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06%EV -2.16%E -1.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-09-15 22:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -2.38%E -0.827%K -1.27%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-15 22:45
LowVig.ag🎯	2.87I 34.84%NM 34.02%EV -2.72%E -0.948%K -1.45%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.98%EV -2.16%E -1.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-09-15 22:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.87I 34.84%NM 34.02%EV -2.72%E -0.948%K -1.45%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.98%EV -2.16%E -1.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-09-15 22:40
1xBet🎯	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%EV -3.06%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%EV -1.50%E -1.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-09-15 21:20
Everygame🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 34.18%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.82%EV -2.16%E -1.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	2.7%	2026-09-15 21:30
BetAnything🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -2.83%E -1.92%K -6.01%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-09-15 22:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-15 22:45
Bet Right🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-15 21:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-15 20:40
Bovada🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-15 22:39
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-15 21:35
888sport🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-15 20:50
888sport (SE)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-15 20:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-15 20:50
Grosvenor🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -3.40%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -10.10%E -7.42%K -28.05%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-09-15 22:35
BetUS🎯	2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -4.08%E -1.44%K -2.23%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -2.83%E -1.92%K -6.01%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-09-15 22:25
DraftKings🎯	2.81I 35.59%NM 34.04%EV -4.75%E -1.69%K -2.63%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.96%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-15 22:40
theScore Bet🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.83%E -1.92%K -6.01%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-15 21:10
Fanatics🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-15 21:10
Caesars🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-15 21:30
PlayUp🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-15 22:20
BetMGM🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-15 21:10
TAB🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-15 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-15 21:40
betfred_uk🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-15 10:25
Coral🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-15 21:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-15 21:10
Coolbet🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-15 21:39
Paddy Power🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-15 21:10
BoyleSports🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-15 21:35
Marathon Bet🎯	2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%EV -5.43%E -1.95%K -3.03%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.96%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 22:40
NordicBet🎯	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.77%E -2.08%K -3.24%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-15 22:19
Betsson🎯	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.77%E -2.08%K -3.24%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-15 22:20
William Hill🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.79%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-15 21:35
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.79%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-15 22:45
Dabble (AU)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.79%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-15 22:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.79%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.47%E -3.83%K -12.72%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-15 22:45
betano_uk🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.79%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-09-15 22:34
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.79%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-09-15 22:19
Bet Victor🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.79%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.63%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-09-15 22:40
LeoVegas🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.48%E -3.14%K -4.99%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.93%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-15 22:45
Neds🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -10.18%E -3.84%K -6.17%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.16%E -1.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -10.18%E -3.84%K -6.17%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.16%E -1.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 21:10
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.51%EV -11.87%E -4.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 65.49%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.50%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-09-15 22:34

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (10)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%	0.4%	2026-09-15 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%	0.4%	2026-09-15 22:45
ProphetX◎	2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67%	0.7%	2026-09-15 22:45
BetOpenly◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%	1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%	0.7%	2026-09-15 22:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%	0.9%	2026-09-15 22:40
Novig◎	2.99I 33.44%NM 33.11%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.89%	1.0%	2026-09-15 22:45
Smarkets◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.48%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.52%	1.6%	2026-09-15 22:45
Kalshi◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%	2.0%	2026-09-15 22:45
Polymarket◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%	2.0%	2026-09-15 22:45
Matchbook◎	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06%	2.3%	2026-09-15 22:45

Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies

胜负盘

Washington Nationals (主队)

Philadelphia Phillies (客队)

博彩公司赔率 (66 家博彩公司)

博彩交易所 ? (10)

博彩交易所 (10)