Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies

2026-09-15 22:45 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (18 en el análisis )

35%

65%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Predicción 35.21%2.84momio equitativo

EV +1.75%

Ventaja +0.604%

Kelly +0.924%

Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.89

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

33.87%35.14%35.14%36.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.452.712.732.8940.82%36.87%36.63%34.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante)

Predicción 64.79%1.54momio equitativo

EV -0.866%

Ventaja -0.566%

Kelly -1.63%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

63.41%64.86%64.86%66.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.411.471.471.5370.92%68.11%68.03%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Washington Nationals (Local): 35.21%; Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante): 64.79%. Para Washington Nationals (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.84. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.89, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.75%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
LowVig.ag🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.87%EV +1.75%E +0.604%K +0.924%G +0.016%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.13%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	2.2%	2026-09-15 02:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.87%EV +1.75%E +0.604%K +0.924%G +0.016%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.13%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	2.2%	2026-09-15 02:30
GTbets🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 34.18%EV +0.338%E +0.119%K +0.183%G +0.001%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.82%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	2.7%	2026-09-15 02:30
BetUS🎯	2.82I 35.46%NM 34.42%EV -0.718%E -0.255%K -0.394%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.58%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-09-15 02:30
BetAnything🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -1.42%E -0.508%K -0.790%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-09-15 02:40
FanDuel🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -1.42%E -0.508%K -0.790%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-14 20:35
BetMGM🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.42%E -0.508%K -0.790%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.05%E -4.17%K -13.44%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-15 02:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.42%E -0.508%K -0.790%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.05%E -4.17%K -13.44%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-15 02:40
Coral🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.42%E -0.508%K -0.790%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.22%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-15 02:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.42%E -0.508%K -0.790%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.22%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-15 02:35
DraftKings🎯	2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -2.48%E -0.895%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -5.40%E -3.70%K -11.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-15 02:34
SportsBet🎯	2.77I 36.10%NM 34.05%EV -2.48%E -0.895%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.95%EV -7.35%E -5.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-14 20:39
Pinnacle🎯	2.76I 36.23%NM 35.36%EV -2.83%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.64%EV -2.16%E -1.43%K -4.24%G +0.000%	2.5%	2026-09-14 20:50
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -2.81%E -1.87%K -5.62%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-09-14 22:55
Caesars🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-15 02:32
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-15 02:35
theScore Bet🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-15 02:55
Fanatics🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:35
BetRivers🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
Casumo🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
Unibet🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
ATG (SE)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
betPARX🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
Bally Bet🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
Svenska Spel🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 02:45
Fliff🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.05%E -4.17%K -13.44%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 02:50
TABtouch🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.18%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.05%E -4.17%K -13.44%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 02:45
1xBet🎯	2.73I 36.63%NM 35.92%EV -3.89%E -1.42%K -2.25%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.08%EV -0.866%E -0.566%K -1.63%G +0.000%	2.0%	2026-09-14 21:55
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV -4.59%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -3.46%E -2.32%K -7.06%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-15 01:44
TAB🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.81%E -1.87%K -5.62%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-15 00:10
Bet Right🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-14 19:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-14 20:45
Betr (AU)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-14 19:25
Paddy Power🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.22%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-14 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.22%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-15 02:45
Virgin Bet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.22%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-15 02:45
Bovada🎯	2.69I 37.17%NM 35.49%EV -5.29%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.51%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-14 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-14 20:00
PlayUp🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 01:00
Neds🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 02:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 02:35
Marathon Bet🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.11%E -2.77%K -8.55%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-14 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-14 20:05
ReBet🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-14 22:50
888sport🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-14 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-14 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-14 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-14 19:25
LeoVegas🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.70%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.75%E -3.23%K -10.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-15 02:45
Grosvenor🎯	2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%EV -7.41%E -2.82%K -4.54%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 65.10%EV -8.64%E -6.13%K -21.08%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-09-15 02:45
betfred_uk🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.76%E -2.96%K -4.79%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.81%E -1.87%K -5.62%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-14 19:20
betano_uk🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -7.76%E -2.96%K -4.79%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -6.05%E -4.17%K -13.44%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-14 19:20
Bet Victor🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -7.76%E -2.96%K -4.79%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -6.05%E -4.17%K -13.44%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-14 19:24
BoyleSports🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.76%E -2.96%K -4.79%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.22%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-09-15 01:54
William Hill🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.46%E -3.26%K -5.29%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.81%E -1.87%K -5.62%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-15 01:54
Dabble (AU)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -8.46%E -3.26%K -5.29%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -5.40%E -3.70%K -11.74%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-15 02:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -10.22%E -4.01%K -6.60%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.22%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-09-15 00:10
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 36.53%EV -13.74%E -5.61%K -9.48%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 63.47%EV -8.64%E -6.13%K -21.08%G +0.000%	11.7%	2026-09-14 22:50

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
BetOpenly◎	2.95I 33.90%NM 33.86%	1.51I 66.23%NM 66.14%	0.1%	2026-09-15 02:55
Kalshi◎	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	0.8%	2026-09-14 22:00
Novig◎	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	0.8%	2026-09-15 02:40
Polymarket◎	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%	1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%	0.9%	2026-09-14 20:45
ProphetX◎	2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14%	1.0%	2026-09-15 01:25
Matchbook◎	2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%	3.2%	2026-09-14 23:10
Smarkets◎	2.52I 39.68%NM 36.36%	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.64%	9.1%	2026-09-14 20:45

Arbitraje (2 combinaciones) +0.04%LowVig.ag 2.89 (34.6%) / 1xBet 1.53 (65.4%)Ver las 2 combinaciones

LowVig.ag🎯 1xBet🎯 BetOnline.ag🎯

Washington Nationals (Local)	Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante)	Margen
LowVig.ag🎯 2.89 (34.6%)	1xBet🎯 1.53 (65.4%)	+0.038%
BetOnline.ag🎯 2.89 (34.6%)	1xBet🎯 1.53 (65.4%)	+0.038%