The School of Odds

Washington Nationals v New York Yankees

2026-07-10 22:46 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 41.08%2.43fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.935%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%41.23%40.95%42.60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.332.3845%43%43%42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New York Yankees (Visit)

Prediction 58.92%1.70fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.605%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.40%58.77%59.05%60.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.541.621.611.6865%62%62%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -2.23%E -0.935%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-09 18:00
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.23%E -0.935%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.50%E -4.78%K -13.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 17:55
1xBet2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -2.64%E -1.11%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -1.61%E -0.962%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 18:09
FanDuel2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.05%E -1.29%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 17:55
GTbets2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -1.02%E -0.605%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 20:25
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.96%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 17:54
Hard Rock Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 19:05
888sport2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 18:00
Mr Green (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 18:00
888sport (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 17:59
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.32%E -3.97%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 18:00
LowVig.ag2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -4.28%E -1.84%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -1.02%E -0.605%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-09 20:25
BetOnline.ag2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -4.28%E -1.84%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -1.02%E -0.605%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-09 20:24
Unibet (UK)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.28%E -1.84%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 17:54
SportsBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -6.32%E -3.97%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-09 17:54
Betclic (FR)2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -5.10%E -2.21%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -6.32%E -3.97%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-09 17:55
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.78%E -1.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 20:09
Fliff2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 19:39
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 18:05
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-09 18:00
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-09 18:04
PlayUp2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.96%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 19:20
Betsson2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.74%E -2.97%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.96%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 17:59
NordicBet2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.74%E -2.97%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.96%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 17:58
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -1.61%E -0.962%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 18:25
ReBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.78%K -13.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-09 17:55
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%EV -8.68%E -5.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-09 17:54
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -9.27%E -6.02%K -17.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-09 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-07-09 20:15
Novig2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-07-09 20:23
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.1%2026-07-09 19:45
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 41.11%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.89%9.6%2026-07-09 20:20