The School of Odds
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Washington Nationals v New York Yankees

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 00:46 UTC

Final: Washington Nationals 3–5 New York Yankees

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 41.08%2.43fair odd
EV -0.168%
Edge -0.069%
Kelly -0.117%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%41.13%41.06%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.312.302.4346.51%43.20%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Yankees (Visit)

Prediction 58.92%1.70fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%58.87%58.94%60.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.631.631.6664.10%61.48%61.35%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV -0.168%E -0.069%K -0.117%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-10 23:59
GTbets2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -0.989%E -0.411%K -0.702%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-11 00:04
Hard Rock Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.40%E -0.583%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-10 23:54
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.40%E -0.583%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-11 00:35
LowVig.ag2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -1.81%E -0.758%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 00:04
BetOnline.ag2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -1.81%E -0.758%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 00:04
BetAnything2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -1.81%E -0.758%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 00:19
BetUS2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -1.81%E -0.758%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-11 00:29
Everygame2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.22%E -0.934%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-11 00:04
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.63%E -1.11%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:32
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.63%E -1.11%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:32
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-10 23:19
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 17:54
Caesars2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 11:08
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:32
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-11 00:04
Fliff2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.32%E -3.98%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 00:39
FanDuel2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -3.87%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 08:45
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -4.28%E -1.84%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -2.20%E -1.32%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-10 22:54
Unibet (UK)2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -4.28%E -1.84%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 23:00
Bet Right2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 15:55
SportsBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 10:49
DraftKings2.31I 43.29%NM 41.37%EV -5.10%E -2.21%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.63%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-11 00:35
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 07:09
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 21:09
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 21:09
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 00:04
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 09:35
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 09:35
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:59
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 09:34
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 09:35
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 22:54
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 23:55
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 00:39
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.50%E -4.78%K -13.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 20:19
Casumo2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:09
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:10
Bally Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:10
ATG (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:10
betPARX2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:10
Virgin Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:55
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:54
LiveScore Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:55
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:55
Betsson2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.74%E -2.97%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 18:14
NordicBet2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.74%E -2.97%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 18:14
Dabble (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 23:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 22:54
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.38%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 21:10
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -11.67%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -8.09%E -5.19%K -14.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-07-11 00:24
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-07-11 00:45
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-10 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-11 00:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-11 00:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-11 00:45
Polymarket2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-07-10 23:54
ProphetX2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-07-11 00:15