La escuela de los momios

Washington Nationals v New York Yankees

Inicio: 2026-07-11 00:46 UTC

Final: Washington Nationals 3–5 New York Yankees

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Washington Nationals (Local)

Predicción 41.08%2.43momio equitativo
EV -0.168%
Ventaja -0.069%
Kelly -0.117%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.00%41.13%41.06%42.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.312.302.4346.51%43.20%43.48%41.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

New York Yankees (Visitante)

Predicción 58.92%1.70momio equitativo
EV -2.20%
Ventaja -1.32%
Kelly -3.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.69%58.87%58.94%60.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.561.631.631.6664.10%61.48%61.35%60.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV -0.168%E -0.069%K -0.117%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-10 23:59
GTbets2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -0.989%E -0.411%K -0.702%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-11 00:04
Hard Rock Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.40%E -0.583%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-10 23:54
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.40%E -0.583%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-11 00:35
LowVig.ag2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -1.81%E -0.758%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 00:04
BetOnline.ag2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -1.81%E -0.758%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 00:04
BetAnything2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -1.81%E -0.758%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 00:19
BetUS2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -1.81%E -0.758%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-11 00:29
Everygame2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.22%E -0.934%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-11 00:04
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.63%E -1.11%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:32
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.63%E -1.11%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:32
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-10 23:19
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 17:54
Caesars2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 11:08
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:32
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-11 00:04
Fliff2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.32%E -3.98%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 00:39
FanDuel2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -3.87%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 08:45
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -4.28%E -1.84%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -2.20%E -1.32%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-10 22:54
Unibet (UK)2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -4.28%E -1.84%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 23:00
Bet Right2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 15:55
SportsBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 10:49
DraftKings2.31I 43.29%NM 41.37%EV -5.10%E -2.21%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.63%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-11 00:35
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 07:09
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 21:09
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 21:09
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 00:04
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 09:35
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 09:35
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:59
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 09:34
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 09:35
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 22:54
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 23:55
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 00:39
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.50%E -4.78%K -13.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 20:19
Casumo2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:09
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:10
Bally Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:10
ATG (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:10
betPARX2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 21:10
Virgin Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:55
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:54
LiveScore Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:55
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:55
Betsson2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.74%E -2.97%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 18:14
NordicBet2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.74%E -2.97%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.97%E -2.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 18:14
Dabble (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.79%E -1.69%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 23:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.38%E -2.06%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 22:54
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.38%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.14%E -3.20%K -8.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 21:10
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -11.67%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -8.09%E -5.19%K -14.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 23:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-07-11 00:24
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-07-11 00:45
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-10 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-11 00:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-11 00:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-11 00:45
Polymarket2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-07-10 23:54
ProphetX2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-07-11 00:15