Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins

2026-08-30 16:16 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (19 en el análisis )

49%

51%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Predicción 49.31%2.03momio equitativo

EV -1.39%

Ventaja -0.694%

Kelly -1.39%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

48.05%49.30%49.34%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.861.941.952.0053.76%51.54%51.28%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Miami Marlins (Visitante)

Predicción 50.69%1.97momio equitativo

EV -1.15%

Ventaja -0.588%

Kelly -1.21%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

50.00%50.70%50.66%51.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.781.871.871.9556.18%53.40%53.48%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Washington Nationals (Local): 49.31%; Miami Marlins (Visitante): 50.69%. Para Miami Marlins (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.97. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.95, con un valor esperado de -1.15%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -1.39%E -0.694%K -1.39%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -3.17%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-08-29 20:35
BetRivers🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -1.39%E -0.694%K -1.39%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-29 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -1.39%E -0.694%K -1.39%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-29 22:25
1xBet🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%EV -2.38%E -1.20%K -2.42%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%EV -1.65%E -0.852%K -1.76%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-08-29 21:40
Pinnacle🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -2.38%E -1.20%K -2.42%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -2.16%E -1.12%K -2.32%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-08-29 20:20
BetUS🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -2.38%E -1.20%K -2.42%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -2.16%E -1.12%K -2.32%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-08-29 20:35
FanDuel🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -2.38%E -1.20%K -2.42%G +0.000%	1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.71%E -3.07%K -6.64%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-29 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.96%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 23:35
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.96%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 23:35
Casumo🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 23:35
Bally Bet🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 23:35
betPARX🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 23:34
ATG (SE)🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 23:34
Unibet🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-30 00:00
LowVig.ag🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.15%E -0.588%K -1.21%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-08-29 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.15%E -0.588%K -1.21%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-08-29 18:39
Caesars🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.15%E -0.588%K -1.21%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-08-29 20:34
GTbets🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.15%E -0.588%K -1.21%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-08-29 19:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-30 00:14
TAB🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-29 23:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-29 23:25
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 19:05
Bet Right🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 20:20
theScore Bet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 19:19
betfred_uk🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 20:10
BetMGM🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 19:29
Coolbet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 22:19
SportsBet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-29 18:38
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-29 19:30
Coral🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-29 19:30
Fliff🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-29 18:40
TABtouch🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -3.85%E -1.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-30 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.35%E -2.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-29 20:20
Neds🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.35%E -2.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-29 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.35%E -2.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-29 19:30
Virgin Bet🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -4.35%E -2.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.74%E -4.25%K -9.43%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-29 23:35
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -4.35%E -2.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.74%E -4.25%K -9.43%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-29 23:35
DraftKings🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-29 23:15
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.69%E -2.50%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-29 19:05
PlayUp🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.69%E -2.50%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-29 20:10
Bovada🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.69%E -2.50%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-30 02:10
LeoVegas🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.69%E -2.50%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-29 22:55
BetAnything🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -5.33%E -2.78%K -5.80%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-30 00:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.33%E -2.78%K -5.80%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.69%E -2.50%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-29 20:00
Marathon Bet🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.33%E -2.78%K -5.80%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.69%E -2.50%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-29 21:25
Fanatics🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.17%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-29 18:39
William Hill🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.17%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-29 22:00
ReBet🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-29 18:50
BoyleSports🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-29 22:50
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -5.71%E -3.07%K -6.64%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-29 19:05
888sport🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-29 18:40
betano_uk🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-29 19:03
Bet Victor🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-29 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-29 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-29 18:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.32%E -3.33%K -7.02%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-29 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.32%E -3.33%K -7.02%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-29 18:40
Grosvenor🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 48.50%EV -6.81%E -3.60%K -7.65%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 51.50%EV -9.76%E -5.49%K -12.52%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-08-29 23:35
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -7.31%E -3.89%K -8.30%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-29 22:20
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 49.46%EV -8.29%E -4.46%K -9.64%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%EV -7.74%E -4.25%K -9.43%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-29 20:00

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Kalshi◎	2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%	1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%	0.0%	2026-08-30 01:45
Novig◎	2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%	1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%	0.6%	2026-08-29 23:45
ProphetX◎	2.03I 49.26%NM 48.87%	1.94I 51.55%NM 51.13%	0.8%	2026-08-30 02:00
Polymarket◎	2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%	1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%	1.1%	2026-08-29 18:35
Matchbook◎	1.98I 50.51%NM 49.10%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.90%	2.9%	2026-08-29 20:15
Smarkets◎	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%	1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%	8.1%	2026-08-30 02:10