Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals v Chicago Cubs

2026-08-13 20:06 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Predicción 44.12%2.27momio equitativo
EV -1.62%
Ventaja -0.725%
Kelly -1.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.59%44.13%44.19%45.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.172.172.2348.78%46.16%46.08%44.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Predicción 55.88%1.79momio equitativo
EV -1.09%
Ventaja -0.616%
Kelly -1.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.97%55.87%55.81%56.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.711.701.7760.98%58.56%58.82%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Washington Nationals (Local): 44.12%; Chicago Cubs (Visitante): 55.88%. Para Chicago Cubs (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.79. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.77, con un valor esperado de -1.09%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%EV -1.62%E -0.725%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%EV -2.21%E -1.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-12 21:49
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.06%E -0.927%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -2.21%E -1.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-12 22:10
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -2.50%E -1.13%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV -1.65%E -0.937%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-13 01:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.50%E -1.13%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.21%E -1.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-12 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.50%E -1.13%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.21%E -1.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-12 21:50
BetUS🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.50%E -1.13%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.21%E -1.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-12 23:54
Caesars🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -1.09%E -0.616%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-12 19:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -1.09%E -0.616%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-12 20:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 18:34
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 21:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 23:50
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 23:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-13 00:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-13 00:40
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-13 00:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.94%E -1.34%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-13 00:40
FanDuel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -3.88%E -2.26%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-12 18:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -3.88%E -2.26%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-13 00:14
DraftKings🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 21:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 00:40
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 00:40
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 00:40
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 00:40
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 00:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 00:40
BetMGM🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.82%E -1.75%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.56%E -3.29%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 23:50
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -4.26%E -1.96%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 18:54
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -4.26%E -1.96%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -6.12%E -3.64%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 00:40
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.77%E -1.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-12 19:19
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.77%E -1.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-13 00:24
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.88%E -2.26%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 23:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.88%E -2.26%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 23:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 22:00
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 00:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 18:40
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 01:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 18:39
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 01:44
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 21:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.00%E -2.94%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 21:59
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.68%E -4.00%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 18:34
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.68%E -4.00%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 22:00
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.15%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.68%E -4.00%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 21:58
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.59%E -2.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.44%E -2.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-13 00:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -5.59%E -2.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -6.68%E -4.00%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-13 00:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -5.59%E -2.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -6.68%E -4.00%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-13 00:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -6.03%E -2.83%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -5.56%E -3.29%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 21:58
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.88%E -2.26%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 18:35
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -8.35%E -5.09%K -13.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-13 00:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.74%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -7.24%E -4.36%K -10.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 21:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.80%E -4.72%K -11.99%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-12 22:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69%0.3%2026-08-13 01:35
ProphetX2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%0.4%2026-08-13 01:40
Polymarket2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-08-13 00:05
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-08-13 00:05
Matchbook2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%2.9%2026-08-12 22:20
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 44.47%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%9.1%2026-08-13 01:55

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