La escuela de los momios

Washington Nationals v Baltimore Orioles

Inicio: 2026-05-17 17:36 UTC

Final: Washington Nationals 3–7 Baltimore Orioles

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Washington Nationals (Local)

Predicción 47.79%2.09momio equitativo
EV +0.358%
Ventaja +0.170%
Kelly +0.325%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.17%47.82%47.78%49.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.902.012.002.1052.63%49.78%50.00%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Baltimore Orioles (Visitante)

Predicción 52.21%1.92momio equitativo
EV -0.800%
Ventaja -0.421%
Kelly -0.889%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.53%52.18%52.22%54.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.711.821.821.9058.48%54.93%54.95%52.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
ReBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +0.358%E +0.170%K +0.325%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -7.59%E -4.29%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 15:10
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +0.358%E +0.170%K +0.325%G +0.001%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -9.68%E -5.59%K -13.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 18:31
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +0.358%E +0.170%K +0.325%G +0.001%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -9.68%E -5.59%K -13.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 23:40
GTbets2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -1.08%E -0.520%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -3.41%E -1.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-17 17:19
BetAnything2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -1.08%E -0.520%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -3.41%E -1.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-17 17:20
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -1.55%E -0.754%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-17 17:10
Pinnacle2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -1.55%E -0.754%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-17 17:25
LowVig.ag2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -1.55%E -0.754%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -3.41%E -1.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-17 17:19
BetOnline.ag2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -1.55%E -0.754%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -3.41%E -1.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-17 17:20
Hard Rock Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.03%E -0.991%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.02%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 13:45
TAB2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.03%E -0.991%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.02%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 17:19
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.03%E -0.991%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.02%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 16:44
Fliff2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -2.03%E -0.991%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -7.59%E -4.29%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 15:05
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.03%E -0.991%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.63%E -4.93%K -11.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 06:05
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -2.03%E -0.991%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -10.72%E -6.27%K -15.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 17:24
BetUS2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%EV -2.51%E -1.23%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%EV -1.84%E -0.981%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-17 17:34
Svenska Spel2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.51%E -1.23%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.41%E -1.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 16:20
FanDuel2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.47%E -1.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.45%E -2.43%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 15:10
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.47%E -1.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.45%E -2.43%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 16:20
Bet Right2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.47%E -1.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 15:10
Bovada2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.47%E -1.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 17:34
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.47%E -1.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.54%E -3.66%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 17:20
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.47%E -1.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.54%E -3.66%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 17:20
Everygame2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -3.94%E -1.96%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -0.800%E -0.421%K -0.889%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-17 16:30
MyBookie.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 47.79%EV -3.94%E -1.96%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.21%EV -3.93%E -2.14%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 15:08
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.41%E -1.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 17:34
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.45%E -2.43%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 15:50
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.45%E -2.43%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 15:00
Caesars2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.45%E -2.43%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 15:00
BetMGM2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.45%E -2.43%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 17:30
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.45%E -2.43%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 17:30
PlayUp2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 15:00
Unibet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 16:20
Casumo2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 16:19
Bally Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 16:20
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 16:20
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 16:20
Grosvenor2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 16:19
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 17:30
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 17:30
Dabble (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 17:15
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.50%E -3.04%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 15:05
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.50%E -3.04%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 16:20
betPARX2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.50%E -3.04%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 17:35
Unibet (NL)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.50%E -3.04%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 17:35
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.50%E -3.04%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 16:20
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.50%E -3.04%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 16:20
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.02%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 15:10
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.02%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 15:00
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.02%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 15:10
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.02%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 15:10
Marathon Bet1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.90%E -2.46%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.98%E -2.73%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 17:20
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -0.800%E -0.421%K -0.889%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-17 17:35
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.41%E -1.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 17:35
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.02%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 15:09
BetRivers1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -7.29%E -3.76%K -7.75%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -7.07%E -3.97%K -9.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 17:35
DraftKings1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -7.77%E -4.02%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -4.45%E -2.43%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 17:35
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -8.24%E -4.29%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -1.84%E -0.981%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 17:35
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -8.72%E -4.57%K -9.58%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 17:35
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.47%EV -9.20%E -4.84%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.53%EV -2.89%E -1.55%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 17:35
Bet Victor1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -9.20%E -4.84%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -3.41%E -1.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 17:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-05-17 15:00
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-05-17 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-05-17 17:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-05-17 17:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-05-17 17:35
Novig2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%1.7%2026-05-17 17:35
ProphetX2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%1.7%2026-05-17 17:35
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 47.69%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.31%2.8%2026-05-17 17:35
BetOpenly2.09I 47.85%NM 46.55%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.45%2.8%2026-05-17 17:34
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%4.9%2026-05-17 17:35