The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 23:07 UTC

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 6–4 Boston Red Sox

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Prediction 44.80%2.23fair odd
EV -0.536%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.439%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.00%44.87%44.73%46.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.122.2250.00%47.19%47.17%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 55.20%1.81fair odd
EV +1.01%
Edge +0.551%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.52%55.13%55.27%56.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.741.741.8360.61%57.43%57.47%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 44.80%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 55.20%. For Boston Red Sox (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%EV -5.02%E -2.37%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%EV +1.01%E +0.551%K +1.22%G +0.012%1.8%2026-08-12 17:39
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%EV -5.02%E -2.37%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV -1.20%E -0.670%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-12 20:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%EV -5.02%E -2.37%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV -1.20%E -0.670%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-12 20:44
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%EV -1.43%E -0.651%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%EV -1.75%E -0.984%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-12 19:55
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%EV -1.43%E -0.651%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%EV -1.75%E -0.984%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-12 23:00
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -2.33%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -1.75%E -0.984%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-12 23:05
Dabble (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -1.75%E -0.984%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 21:19
Caesars🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -1.43%E -0.651%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.30%E -1.30%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-12 19:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -1.43%E -0.651%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.30%E -1.30%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-12 20:19
BetUS🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -2.33%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -2.30%E -1.30%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-12 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.30%E -1.30%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 20:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.30%E -1.30%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 20:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.30%E -1.30%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:38
GTbets🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%EV -0.536%E -0.241%K -0.439%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-12 19:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -1.43%E -0.651%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-12 19:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -1.43%E -0.651%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-12 19:54
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 20:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 20:45
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 20:44
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 20:45
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 20:44
Bally Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -2.85%E -1.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 20:45
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.41%E -1.95%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-12 19:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.12%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.41%E -1.95%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 22:50
MyBookie.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.12%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.41%E -1.95%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 22:54
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.41%E -1.95%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 20:44
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.43%E -0.651%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -3.96%E -2.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-12 22:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.96%E -2.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-12 19:50
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.96%E -2.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-12 20:19
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.96%E -2.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-12 22:49
Bovada🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.12%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.96%E -2.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-12 23:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 23:00
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 22:59
Bet Right🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.02%E -2.37%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 23:00
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.02%E -2.37%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 23:00
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 19:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 19:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 19:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 19:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 22:59
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 23:00
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 20:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 20:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 20:44
SportsBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -4.57%E -2.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 23:00
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.02%E -2.37%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 22:50
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.02%E -2.37%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 22:49
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.02%E -2.37%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 22:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 22:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 22:49
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 22:50
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 22:58
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 19:54
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.17%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.17%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.17%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-12 22:49
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.17%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-12 20:45
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.72%E -3.98%K -9.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-12 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.72%E -3.98%K -9.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-12 22:49
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.91%E -2.82%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.93%E -5.41%K -13.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-12 23:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.23I 44.84%NM 44.80%1.81I 55.25%NM 55.20%0.1%2026-08-12 23:04
ProphetX◎2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69%0.3%2026-08-12 23:05
Novig◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-08-12 23:05
Polymarket◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-12 22:25
Matchbook◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-12 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-12 22:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-12 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-12 23:00
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-08-12 22:30
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%3.0%2026-08-12 23:00