The School of Odds

Tampa Bay Rays v Seattle Mariners

2026-07-11 20:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 51.32%1.95fair odd
EV +0.083%
Edge +0.042%
Kelly +0.087%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.18%51.47%52.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.851.9557%54%54%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Seattle Mariners (Visit)

Prediction 48.68%2.05fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.82%48.53%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.861.941.952.0154%52%51%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV +0.083%E +0.042%K +0.087%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-10 18:49
BetOnline.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV +0.083%E +0.042%K +0.087%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-10 18:49
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 51.28%EV -1.97%E -1.03%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.72%EV -2.16%E -1.08%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-10 17:50
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.97%E -1.03%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-10 18:49
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.48%E -1.31%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:34
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.02%E -2.15%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 17:34
Bet Right1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.02%E -2.15%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 17:39
FanDuel1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.54%E -2.44%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.62%E -1.83%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 17:30
Betr (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -4.54%E -2.44%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:39
Unibet (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.11%E -2.09%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 17:34
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:30
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 18:55
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:40
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:39
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:39
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.56%E -3.02%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.60%E -2.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 17:54
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.65%E -1.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-10 18:19
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:33
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.08%E -2.61%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:38
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.65%E -1.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 17:30
ReBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 17:34
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -9.16%E -5.17%K -11.89%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-10 17:34
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 51.38%EV -9.67%E -5.49%K -12.72%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.62%EV -9.46%E -5.09%K -11.00%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-10 17:30
Polymarket1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-10 17:30
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%10.0%2026-07-10 17:34