Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies

2026-08-12 18:15 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals (Local)

Predicción 40.87%2.45momio equitativo
EV +0.952%
Ventaja +0.385%
Kelly +0.648%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.75%40.87%40.94%43.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.332.332.4745.45%42.90%42.92%40.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante)

Predicción 59.13%1.69momio equitativo
EV -1.26%
Ventaja -0.752%
Kelly -1.87%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.85%59.13%59.06%60.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.621.621.6764.10%61.80%61.73%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: St. Louis Cardinals (Local): 40.87%; Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante): 59.13%. Para St. Louis Cardinals (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.45. 4 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.47, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.952%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.90%EV +0.952%E +0.385%K +0.648%G +0.006%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.10%EV -3.03%E -1.85%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-12 02:08
GTbets🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV +0.135%E +0.055%K +0.093%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-12 00:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV +0.135%E +0.055%K +0.093%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-12 00:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV +0.135%E +0.055%K +0.093%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-12 00:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%EV -1.91%E -0.795%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%EV -1.26%E -0.752%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-11 20:54
BetUS🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -2.32%E -0.970%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -3.03%E -1.85%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-12 02:29
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -2.32%E -0.970%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-11 22:34
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.73%E -1.15%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-12 02:10
FanDuel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -2.73%E -1.15%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-11 22:35
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.73%E -1.15%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-11 22:33
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -3.14%E -1.32%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -1.26%E -0.752%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-12 02:24
BetAnything🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -3.54%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -3.03%E -1.85%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-12 03:19
DraftKings🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -3.54%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-12 02:10
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-12 00:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.62%E -2.22%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 00:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 02:13
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 00:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 00:19
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 00:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 00:19
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 02:09
888sport🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 02:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 02:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 02:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 02:54
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.99%E -3.76%K -10.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 03:09
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.95%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 22:35
Bet Right🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.36%E -1.86%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 02:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.77%E -2.05%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 02:10
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.77%E -2.05%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 00:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.77%E -2.05%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 00:19
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.77%E -2.05%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 00:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.77%E -2.05%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 00:20
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.77%E -2.05%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 00:19
Bally Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.77%E -2.05%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 00:20
Coolbet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.77%E -2.05%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 02:10
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.18%E -2.23%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 00:19
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 03:19
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.62%E -2.22%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 00:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-11 18:53
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 02:14
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 02:29
ReBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 02:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 02:09
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 02:09
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 02:08
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 02:08
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 00:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 00:19
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 02:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 02:55
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.44%E -1.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 02:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -6.58%E -4.16%K -11.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-12 02:10
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 00:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.08%E -4.58%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.26%E -0.752%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 02:54
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.08%E -4.58%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.26%E -0.752%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 02:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.08%E -4.58%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 02:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-08-12 01:30
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-08-12 02:05
ProphetX2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%0.9%2026-08-12 02:55
Novig2.47I 40.49%NM 40.05%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.95%1.1%2026-08-12 02:35
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%5.6%2026-08-12 03:20
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 42.02%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.98%9.2%2026-08-12 00:30

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