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Seattle Mariners v San Diego Padres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Seattle Mariners (Local)
Prediction 60.40%1.66fair odd
EV +0.271%
Edge +0.163%
Kelly +0.410%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.40%60.28%60.57%61.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.591.6665.36%62.90%62.89%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
San Diego Padres (Visit)
Prediction 39.60%2.53fair odd
EV +0.178%
Edge +0.070%
Kelly +0.116%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%39.72%39.43%41.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.262.402.402.5344.25%41.68%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 60.40%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 39.60%. For Seattle Mariners (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.656. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.660, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.271%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV +0.271%E +0.163%K +0.410%G +0.001% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -1.54%E -0.946%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -6.95%E -2.96%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%EV -1.80%E -0.727%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-05-16 22:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -2.15%E -1.32%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -7.74%E -3.32%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.92%EV -2.75%E -1.71%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 39.08%EV -0.614%E -0.245%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-16 19:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -2.75%E -1.71%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -2.20%E -0.890%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-16 22:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -2.75%E -1.71%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-16 23:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -2.75%E -1.71%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -8.14%E -3.51%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -2.75%E -1.71%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -8.14%E -3.51%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -2.75%E -1.71%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -8.14%E -3.51%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -2.75%E -1.71%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -8.14%E -3.51%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 21:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.40%EV -2.75%E -1.71%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%EV -10.51%E -4.65%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.26%EV -3.35%E -2.10%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.74%EV +0.178%E +0.070%K +0.116%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-16 23:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.26%EV -3.35%E -2.10%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.74%EV +0.178%E +0.070%K +0.116%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-16 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%EV -3.35%E -2.10%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%EV -0.218%E -0.087%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-16 23:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%EV -3.35%E -2.10%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%EV -0.218%E -0.087%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-16 23:01 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -3.35%E -2.10%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV -1.41%E -0.565%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-16 23:01 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.35%E -2.10%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.97%E -2.07%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.35%E -2.10%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.76%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.35%E -2.10%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.95%E -2.96%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 23:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.96%E -2.49%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-16 12:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.96%E -2.49%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.97%E -2.07%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.96%E -2.49%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.97%E -2.07%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.96%E -2.49%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.97%E -2.07%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 15:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -4.56%E -2.89%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -2.20%E -0.890%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-16 21:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%EV -4.56%E -2.89%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%EV -3.39%E -1.39%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.56%E -2.89%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.97%E -2.07%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.56%E -2.89%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -6.16%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 19:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.56%E -2.89%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -6.16%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 21:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.56%E -2.89%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.95%E -2.96%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-16 12:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.56%E -2.89%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.93%E -3.88%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 14:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 15:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.18%E -1.73%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.18%E -1.73%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.97%E -2.07%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.76%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 14:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.95%E -2.96%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.77%E -3.70%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.01%E -0.404%K -0.673%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -5.77%E -3.70%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -3.39%E -1.39%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -5.77%E -3.70%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.78%E -1.56%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 19:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.77%E -3.70%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.95%E -2.96%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.37%E -4.11%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.97%E -2.07%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 05:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.76%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 20:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.95% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 40.05% | -0.1% | 2026-05-16 23:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47% | 1.3% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56% | 2.8% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.93% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.07% | 3.2% | 2026-05-16 23:15 |