The School of Odds

Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds

2026-07-22 19:41 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 58.39%1.71fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.45%58.33%59.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.581.631.631.6763%61%61%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cincinnati Reds (Visit)

Prediction 41.61%2.40fair odd
EV -0.976%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -0.707%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.45%41.55%41.67%43.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.3845%44%43%42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%EV -0.976%E -0.410%K -0.707%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-21 18:40
GTbets1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -1.39%E -0.587%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-21 18:10
LowVig.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -1.81%E -0.766%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-21 18:05
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -1.81%E -0.766%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-21 18:10
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-21 20:30
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.47%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 20:10
Fanatics1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 18:10
MyBookie.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 20:34
Caesars1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 19:20
FanDuel1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.23%E -2.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.47%E -1.50%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 20:30
DraftKings1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.23%E -2.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-21 21:55
Unibet (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.23%E -2.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -5.55%E -2.45%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 20:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.23%E -2.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 22:25
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.23%E -2.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 22:25
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.22%E -0.947%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-21 18:10
Bovada1.63I 61.35%NM 58.73%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.27%EV -3.47%E -1.50%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-21 20:25
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 21:55
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 20:45
NordicBet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.55%E -2.45%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 20:30
Betsson1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.55%E -2.45%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 20:30
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.22%E -0.947%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 20:05
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.22%E -0.947%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 21:55
888sport1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:20
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:20
Mr Green (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:20
888sport (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:20
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:00
Betway1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:45
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 20:30
ReBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 19:40
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 19:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.39%E -0.587%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 21:55
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.39%E -0.587%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 21:55
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.49%EV -5.55%E -2.45%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 20:30
betano_uk1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-21 19:20
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.39%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-21 19:20
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 20:25
Unibet (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%EV -7.15%E -4.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -8.47%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 20:30
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -7.74%E -4.90%K -13.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -8.47%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-21 20:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 57.11%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.89%0.1%2026-07-21 21:40
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-21 18:05
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 57.04%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.96%2.5%2026-07-21 22:40
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.32%10.4%2026-07-21 20:30