Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners v Athletics

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 01:40 UTC

Final: Seattle Mariners 4–7 Athletics

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

66 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 65.51%1.53fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.710%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.88%65.57%65.48%68.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.441.451.5174.63%69.24%68.97%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletics (Visit)

Prediction 34.49%2.90fair odd
EV +5.18%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +2.53%
Growth +0.131%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%34.43%34.52%36.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.822.803.0538.46%35.47%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 65.51%; Athletics (Visit): 34.49%. For Athletics (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -8.28%E -5.91%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%4.2%2026-09-04 01:30
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -9.59%E -6.95%K -25.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +5.18%E +1.70%K +2.53%G +0.131%5.3%2026-09-04 01:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -10.24%E -7.48%K -27.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV +3.46%E +1.15%K +1.73%G +0.060%6.3%2026-09-04 01:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -10.24%E -7.48%K -27.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV +3.46%E +1.15%K +1.73%G +0.060%6.3%2026-09-04 01:30
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -12.21%E -9.11%K -35.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV +1.73%E +0.587%K +0.888%G +0.015%8.5%2026-09-04 01:30
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%EV -3.04%E -2.05%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%EV +0.007%E +0.002%K +0.004%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-04 01:35
theScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -4.35%E -2.98%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV +0.007%E +0.002%K +0.004%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-03 12:44
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.05%EV -3.69%E -2.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%EV -1.37%E -0.480%K -0.738%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 01:05
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.69%E -2.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.72%E -0.603%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 20:30
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.72%E -0.603%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-03 23:04
Caesars🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.51%EV -2.38%E -1.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.49%EV -2.41%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-04 01:19
GTbets🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.51%EV -2.38%E -1.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.49%EV -2.41%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-04 01:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.43%EV -2.38%E -1.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.57%EV -2.75%E -0.976%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 01:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.43%EV -2.38%E -1.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.57%EV -2.75%E -0.976%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 01:05
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 65.05%EV -1.07%E -0.710%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.95%EV -3.10%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.8%2026-09-03 16:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.81%EV -4.35%E -2.98%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.19%EV -3.10%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 23:40
Everygame🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -2.38%E -1.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-03 13:04
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.35%E -2.98%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 23:05
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 01:35
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 01:35
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 22:14
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 12:40
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 23:05
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 14:39
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 12:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.44%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 12:40
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -4.13%E -1.49%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 13:05
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -4.13%E -1.49%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 01:35
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -4.13%E -1.49%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 01:35
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.35%E -2.98%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -4.48%E -1.62%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 01:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.04%E -2.05%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 12:10
Fanatics🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.69%E -2.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 01:20
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.35%E -2.98%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 19:54
888sport🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 12:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 13:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 12:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 23:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 01:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 23:05
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 14:40
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 12:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.97%E -4.91%K -16.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.17%E -1.88%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 01:00
FanDuel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -2.38%E -1.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -6.20%E -2.28%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 00:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -4.35%E -2.98%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -6.20%E -2.28%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 16:50
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -3.69%E -2.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.17%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 00:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -1.73%E -1.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -6.89%E -2.55%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-04 00:39
Fliff🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.69%E -2.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.89%E -2.55%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 01:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.31%E -4.42%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.89%E -2.55%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 23:05
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.04%E -2.05%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.61%E -3.25%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 12:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.04%E -2.05%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.61%E -3.25%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 12:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.97%E -4.91%K -16.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.61%E -3.25%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 01:14
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.66%E -3.93%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.65%E -3.68%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 00:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -3.69%E -2.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -10.34%E -3.98%K -6.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 17:35
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.34%E -3.98%K -6.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 01:33
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.00%E -3.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.34%E -3.98%K -6.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 01:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.51I 66.23%NM 66.14%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.86%0.1%2026-09-04 01:30
ProphetX1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-09-03 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-09-04 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-09-04 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-09-04 00:55
Novig1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%0.7%2026-09-04 01:15
Matchbook1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-09-04 01:35
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-09-03 17:55
Polymarket1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-09-03 21:30
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 66.82%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.18%2.5%2026-09-04 01:10