Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Diego Padres v Chicago White Sox

Inicio: 2026-05-03 20:11 UTC

Final: San Diego Padres 4–3 Chicago White Sox

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Predicción 59.94%1.67momio equitativo
EV -1.09%
Ventaja -0.661%
Kelly -1.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.52%60.04%60.10%62.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.591.591.6566.67%62.79%62.89%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago White Sox (Visitante)

Predicción 40.06%2.50momio equitativo
EV +2.14%
Ventaja +0.840%
Kelly +1.38%
Crecimiento +0.030%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.04%39.96%39.90%41.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.392.402.5543.48%41.86%41.67%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: San Diego Padres (Local): 59.94%; Chicago White Sox (Visitante): 40.06%. Para Chicago White Sox (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.50. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.14%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -10.08%E -6.72%K -20.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +2.14%E +0.840%K +1.38%G +0.030%5.9%2026-05-03 19:40
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -4.09%E -2.56%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV -0.262%E -0.105%K -0.176%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-03 17:20
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.69%E -2.95%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.86%E -0.761%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV -1.69%E -1.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-03 20:00
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.69%E -2.95%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-03 16:54
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -1.09%E -0.661%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV -3.07%E -1.27%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-03 19:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.09%E -2.56%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -3.07%E -1.27%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 19:25
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -1.09%E -0.661%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -3.47%E -1.44%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-03 20:00
DraftKings🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -5.29%E -3.35%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -3.47%E -1.44%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -1.09%E -0.661%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-03 19:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -1.09%E -0.661%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-03 19:00
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -1.09%E -0.661%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-03 19:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.29%E -1.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 20:05
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.89%E -1.78%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 20:05
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.09%E -2.56%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 19:25
Betway🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.69%E -2.95%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-03 19:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.69%E -2.95%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-03 19:25
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.29%E -3.35%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 19:10
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.29%E -3.35%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 19:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 19:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 20:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 20:05
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.87%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:05
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.67%E -1.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 20:01
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.67%E -1.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 19:55
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.67%E -1.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 19:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -5.07%E -2.14%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 19:30
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -5.07%E -2.14%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 19:30
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -2.89%E -1.78%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.47%E -2.32%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 19:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -2.29%E -1.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 19:15
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.89%E -1.78%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.89%E -1.78%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 19:30
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.89%E -1.78%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 19:30
Fanatics🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 18:59
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 20:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.09%E -2.56%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.29%E -3.35%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.49%E -4.16%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.87%E -2.50%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.09%E -2.56%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -6.27%E -2.68%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 20:00
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.67%E -2.86%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 19:15
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.67%E -2.86%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 19:29
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.49%E -2.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.67%E -2.86%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 19:30
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.29%E -1.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -7.87%E -3.42%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 20:05
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.89%E -3.75%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.87%E -3.42%K -6.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 17:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.67I 59.88%NM 59.86%2.49I 40.16%NM 40.14%0.0%2026-05-03 19:54
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-05-03 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-05-03 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-05-03 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-05-03 19:30
ProphetX1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-05-03 20:05
BetOpenly1.67I 59.88%NM 59.47%2.45I 40.82%NM 40.53%0.7%2026-05-03 20:05
Polymarket1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-05-03 17:00
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.6%2026-05-03 19:40