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Pittsburgh Pirates v San Diego Padres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)
Prediction 57.10%1.75fair odd
EV +1.07%
Edge +0.602%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.42%57.12%57.12%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.671.7762.50%59.78%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
San Diego Padres (Visit)
Prediction 42.90%2.33fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.578%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%42.88%42.88%44.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.232.242.3046.73%44.84%44.64%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 57.10%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 42.90%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.07%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV +1.07%E +0.602%K +1.38%G +0.015% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-04-07 22:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV +0.495%E +0.281%K +0.652%G +0.003% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -5.19%E -2.35%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-04-07 22:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.11%EV -1.79%E -1.04%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.89%EV -1.76%E -0.768%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-04-07 21:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.78%EV -1.79%E -1.04%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.22%EV -3.05%E -1.35%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 21:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.78%EV -1.79%E -1.04%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.22%EV -3.05%E -1.35%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 21:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -1.79%E -1.04%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-07 21:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -1.79%E -1.04%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 22:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -2.36%E -1.38%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -8.19%E -3.83%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 22:24 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -2.93%E -1.72%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV -5.19%E -2.35%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 20:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.93%E -1.72%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 22:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.93%E -1.72%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 22:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.50%E -2.07%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-07 16:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.50%E -2.07%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.76%E -2.14%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 22:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.50%E -2.07%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.76%E -2.14%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 21:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.50%E -2.07%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -4.07%E -2.42%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -2.19%E -0.959%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.07%E -2.42%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 22:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.07%E -2.42%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 16:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.07%E -2.42%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.48%E -2.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.07%E -2.42%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.48%E -2.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 22:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.33%E -0.578%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-06 20:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.33%E -0.578%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-07 19:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -2.62%E -1.15%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-07 21:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 20:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 21:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 21:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 21:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.76%E -2.14%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 21:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 21:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 21:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 21:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 21:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 19:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.64%E -2.78%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.21%E -3.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.33%E -1.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 21:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.19%E -0.959%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 19:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 22:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 21:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 21:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.33%E -1.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.33%E -1.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.33%E -1.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.33%E -1.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 21:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.79%E -3.51%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 22:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.36%E -3.88%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 22:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.36%E -3.88%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 22:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.36%E -3.88%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 22:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.50%E -4.63%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 19:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.50%E -4.63%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-07 21:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.64%E -5.40%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -1.33%E -0.578%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-07 16:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.40% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 43.60% | 0.2% | 2026-04-07 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 22:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 22:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78% | 1.1% | 2026-04-07 22:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-04-07 21:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-04-07 20:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36% | 2.1% | 2026-04-07 21:30 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 22:24 |