Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays

2026-08-07 22:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 65.66%1.52momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -1.00%
Kelly -3.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.41%65.64%65.59%66.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.411.461.451.5070.92%68.62%68.97%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante)

Predicción 34.34%2.91momio equitativo
EV +3.01%
Ventaja +1.00%
Kelly +1.51%
Crecimiento +0.045%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.04%34.36%34.41%36.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.762.753.0038.46%36.19%36.36%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 65.66%; Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante): 34.34%. Para Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.91. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.01%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%EV -2.82%E -1.90%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%EV +3.01%E +1.00%K +1.51%G +0.045%0.9%2026-08-06 22:45
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.67%EV -4.13%E -2.83%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.33%EV +0.264%E +0.090%K +0.137%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-07 00:10
Caesars🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%EV -2.82%E -1.90%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%EV -0.423%E -0.146%K -0.223%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-07 01:00
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.90%EV -2.16%E -1.45%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.10%EV -1.11%E -0.385%K -0.590%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-07 01:25
GTbets🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.67%EV -2.16%E -1.45%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.33%EV -2.14%E -0.751%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-07 00:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.14%E -0.751%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-06 21:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.76%E -4.76%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -2.14%E -0.751%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 02:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.59%EV -2.16%E -1.45%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.41%EV -2.48%E -0.874%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-07 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.59%EV -2.16%E -1.45%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.41%EV -2.48%E -0.874%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-07 00:40
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -2.48%E -0.874%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-06 21:40
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.28%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.72%EV -2.83%E -0.999%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 00:55
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-06 21:55
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-07 01:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-07 01:15
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 22:45
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 00:54
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 00:00
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 01:50
Fliff🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 01:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.86%E -1.38%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 22:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.49%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.51%EV -4.20%E -1.51%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-07 00:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.96%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%EV -4.20%E -1.51%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 01:15
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.11%EV -2.16%E -1.45%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.89%EV -4.54%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-07 00:40
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -4.54%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 02:10
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -4.54%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 01:10
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -4.54%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 01:10
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%EV -6.10%E -4.27%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -4.54%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 21:40
BetAnything🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.13%E -2.83%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -4.89%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 02:05
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.82%E -1.90%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-07 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 01:15
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 01:20
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 01:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 01:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 01:15
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 01:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 01:20
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.48%E -2.36%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 01:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 00:05
888sport🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 00:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 21:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 21:45
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 22:50
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.57%E -2.03%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 00:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.82%E -1.90%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 00:50
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.82%E -1.90%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 00:54
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.82%E -1.90%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 00:05
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.79%E -3.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 01:15
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 21:40
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 00:09
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 00:05
ReBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 23:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.45%E -3.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.29%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 01:20
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.10%EV -7.41%E -5.26%K -18.09%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%EV -9.69%E -3.69%K -5.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-07 01:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.51%E -1.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.72%E -4.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 00:50
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.51%E -1.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.72%E -4.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 00:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -6.76%E -4.76%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -10.72%E -4.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-07 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -6.76%E -4.76%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -10.72%E -4.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-07 00:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-08-07 02:45
Novig1.48I 67.57%NM 66.89%2.99I 33.44%NM 33.11%1.0%2026-08-07 02:00
Polymarket1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-08-07 01:00
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.0%2026-08-07 01:50
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 65.57%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.43%4.5%2026-08-07 02:30
Smarkets1.44I 69.44%NM 64.18%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%8.2%2026-08-07 02:40