Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals

2026-08-21 22:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 68.99%1.45momio equitativo
EV -0.651%
Ventaja -0.452%
Kelly -1.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.63%69.01%68.85%70.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.331.391.391.4475.19%71.93%71.94%69.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Predicción 31.01%3.23momio equitativo
EV +2.32%
Ventaja +0.704%
Kelly +1.01%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.61%30.99%31.15%34.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.063.053.3036.36%32.69%32.79%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 68.99%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante): 31.01%. Para St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.23. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.30, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.32%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%EV -2.03%E -1.43%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%EV +2.32%E +0.704%K +1.01%G +0.023%0.7%2026-08-21 14:30
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 70.21%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%EV +2.32%E +0.704%K +1.01%G +0.023%1.7%2026-08-21 14:30
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 70.09%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.91%EV +1.70%E +0.520%K +0.747%G +0.013%1.9%2026-08-21 14:30
Caesars🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 70.04%EV -4.10%E -2.95%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96%EV +0.774%E +0.238%K +0.344%G +0.003%2.7%2026-08-21 14:34
theScore Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.98%EV -4.10%E -2.95%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 30.02%EV +0.464%E +0.143%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.8%2026-08-21 14:34
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.70%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.30%EV -0.156%E -0.049%K -0.070%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-21 14:34
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.39%EV -6.86%E -5.08%K -19.60%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.61%EV -0.466%E -0.145%K -0.211%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 14:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 69.35%EV -2.72%E -1.93%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.65%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-21 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 69.35%EV -2.72%E -1.93%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.65%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-21 14:30
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%EV -2.03%E -1.43%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%EV -2.33%E -0.739%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-21 14:34
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.33%E -0.739%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-21 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.33%E -0.739%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-21 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.33%E -0.739%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-21 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.33%E -0.739%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-21 14:34
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.33%E -0.739%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-21 14:30
Everygame🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58%EV -2.03%E -1.43%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-21 14:32
BetUS🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -2.72%E -1.93%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-21 14:34
GTbets🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -2.72%E -1.93%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-21 14:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-21 14:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-21 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 14:30
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 14:30
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 14:30
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 14:30
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 14:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 14:30
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 14:30
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 14:35
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 14:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.86%E -5.08%K -19.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 14:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -4.50%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 14:38
ReBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.10%E -2.95%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 14:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 14:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 14:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 14:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -5.74%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 14:30
Coolbet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.10%E -2.95%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -6.05%E -2.00%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-21 14:34
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.03%E -1.43%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-21 14:39
BetAnything🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -2.72%E -1.93%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-21 14:30
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 14:29
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 14:34
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 14:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 14:29
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 14:28
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 14:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.10%E -2.95%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 14:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 14:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 14:39
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 14:38
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 14:39
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 14:30
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.24%E -6.20%K -24.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-21 14:30
Fliff🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -2.03%E -1.43%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-21 14:35
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 14:34
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 14:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 14:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 14:30
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 14:39
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.48%E -4.00%K -14.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 14:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.48%E -4.00%K -14.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 14:40
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.08%E -3.48%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-21 14:30
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -0.651%E -0.452%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.08%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-21 14:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -0.651%E -0.452%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.08%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-21 14:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -0.651%E -0.452%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -14.73%E -5.36%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 13:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.43I 69.93%NM 70.08%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.92%-0.2%2026-08-21 14:34
Novig1.42I 70.42%NM 70.11%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.89%0.5%2026-08-21 14:40
ProphetX1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-08-21 14:30
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-08-21 14:30
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%0.9%2026-08-21 14:35
Polymarket1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75%1.0%2026-08-21 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%1.2%2026-08-21 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%1.2%2026-08-21 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%1.2%2026-08-21 14:35
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%2.7%2026-08-21 14:40
Arbitraje (9 combinaciones) +0.25%Dabble (AU) 1.44 (69.6%) / FanDuel 3.30 (30.4%)Ver las 9 combinaciones
Philadelphia Phillies (Local)St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)Margen
Neds🎯 1.44 (69.6%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 3.30 (30.4%)+0.253%
Neds🎯 1.44 (69.6%)FanDuel🎯 3.30 (30.4%)+0.253%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.44 (69.6%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 3.30 (30.4%)+0.253%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.44 (69.6%)FanDuel🎯 3.30 (30.4%)+0.253%
Dabble (AU)🎯 1.44 (69.6%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 3.30 (30.4%)+0.253%
Dabble (AU)🎯 1.44 (69.6%)FanDuel🎯 3.30 (30.4%)+0.253%
Neds🎯 1.44 (69.5%)DraftKings🎯 3.28 (30.5%)+0.068%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.44 (69.5%)DraftKings🎯 3.28 (30.5%)+0.068%
Dabble (AU)🎯 1.44 (69.5%)DraftKings🎯 3.28 (30.5%)+0.068%

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