Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals

2026-08-22 22:06 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 54.57%1.83momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.988%
Kelly -2.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.05%54.66%54.55%56.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.661.741.751.8060.24%57.41%57.14%55.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Predicción 45.43%2.20momio equitativo
EV +2.22%
Ventaja +0.988%
Kelly +1.78%
Crecimiento +0.040%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.59%45.34%45.45%45.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.112.102.2550.00%47.50%47.62%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 54.57%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante): 45.43%. Para St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.20. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.25, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.22%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -5.05%E -2.90%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV +2.22%E +0.988%K +1.78%G +0.040%1.9%2026-08-21 23:00
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -7.24%E -4.26%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.048%E -0.022%K -0.040%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 01:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -7.24%E -4.26%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.048%E -0.022%K -0.040%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 01:00
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -7.78%E -4.60%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -0.956%E -0.439%K -0.810%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 01:00
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.78%E -0.988%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.32%E -1.08%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-21 21:24
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.78%E -0.988%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.32%E -1.08%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-21 22:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.78%E -0.988%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.32%E -1.08%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-21 22:34
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.42%E -1.93%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.32%E -1.08%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-21 22:15
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -6.14%E -3.57%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -2.32%E -1.08%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 01:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -6.14%E -3.57%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -2.32%E -1.08%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 01:00
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -5.05%E -2.90%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -3.23%E -1.52%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 21:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.68%E -1.74%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 21:50
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.42%E -1.93%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-21 21:00
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.42%E -1.93%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-21 21:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.42%E -1.93%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-21 21:00
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.42%E -1.93%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 00:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:00
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:00
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:00
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:04
Bally Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:04
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 23:03
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.51%E -2.58%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 21:04
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.51%E -2.58%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 21:09
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 21:00
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 21:04
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 21:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 21:04
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 21:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 21:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 21:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.14%E -3.57%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 21:50
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.69%E -3.91%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-21 22:54
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.69%E -3.91%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.59%E -2.19%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-21 22:09
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -6.14%E -3.57%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-21 21:54
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.51%E -2.58%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.50%E -2.64%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 21:00
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.51%E -2.58%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.50%E -2.64%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 21:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.51%E -2.58%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.50%E -2.64%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 21:09
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.51%E -2.58%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.50%E -2.64%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 23:00
NordicBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.95%E -2.88%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-21 21:04
Betsson🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.96%E -2.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.95%E -2.88%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-21 21:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -6.41%E -3.11%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 23:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.60%E -3.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -6.41%E -3.11%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 23:00
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -7.24%E -4.26%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -8.23%E -4.07%K -8.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-21 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -8.33%E -4.96%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -9.13%E -4.57%K -9.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-21 22:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -9.42%E -5.67%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -9.13%E -4.57%K -9.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 21:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%-0.0%2026-08-21 23:40
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-08-21 21:00
Novig1.80I 55.56%NM 54.66%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.34%1.6%2026-08-22 01:05
ProphetX1.78I 56.18%NM 54.71%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.29%2.7%2026-08-22 01:09
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%9.9%2026-08-21 21:55

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