Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves

Inicio: 2026-09-07 17:06 UTC

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 1–0 Atlanta Braves

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 62.75%1.59momio equitativo
EV +0.406%
Ventaja +0.254%
Kelly +0.676%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.74%62.32%62.86%63.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.471.531.531.6068.03%65.24%65.36%62.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlanta Braves (Visitante)

Predicción 37.25%2.68momio equitativo
EV +0.565%
Ventaja +0.209%
Kelly +0.332%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.06%37.68%37.14%40.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.522.552.7043.48%39.68%39.22%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 62.75%; Atlanta Braves (Visitante): 37.25%. Para Atlanta Braves (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.68. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.565%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV +0.406%E +0.254%K +0.676%G +0.003%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-07 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -0.849%E -0.537%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -12.47%E -5.31%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 17:05
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -1.48%E -0.941%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-07 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -1.48%E -0.941%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-07 16:05
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -1.48%E -0.941%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -11.35%E -4.77%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 17:05
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -1.48%E -0.941%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -12.47%E -5.31%K -9.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 17:05
1xBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.86%EV -2.10%E -1.35%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.14%EV -1.67%E -0.632%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-07 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.86%EV -2.10%E -1.35%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.14%EV -1.67%E -0.632%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-07 17:05
Everygame🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.10%E -1.35%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-07 16:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.10%E -1.35%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-07 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.10%E -1.35%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-07 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -2.10%E -1.35%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -12.47%E -5.31%K -9.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%EV -1.67%E -0.632%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-07 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%EV -1.67%E -0.632%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-07 17:00
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.83%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.17%EV -2.41%E -0.922%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-07 17:00
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -7.63%E -3.08%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -7.63%E -3.08%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 16:05
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -7.63%E -3.08%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 16:05
Bally Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -7.63%E -3.08%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 16:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -7.63%E -3.08%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 16:05
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -7.63%E -3.08%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 16:05
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -7.63%E -3.08%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 16:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 16:39
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 16:39
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -14.33%E -6.23%K -11.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 16:54
ReBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -14.33%E -6.23%K -11.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 17:05
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -2.73%E -1.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -14.33%E -6.23%K -11.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -3.36%E -2.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -2.41%E -0.922%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-07 16:35
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -3.36%E -2.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -2.41%E -0.922%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-07 16:59
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV +0.565%E +0.209%K +0.332%G +0.002%2.4%2026-09-07 16:39
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-07 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-07 14:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-07 17:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV -3.53%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-07 17:05
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 17:05
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 16:40
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 16:35
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 16:39
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 16:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -9.49%E -3.91%K -6.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -3.99%E -2.61%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -9.49%E -3.91%K -6.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 16:05
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.61%E -3.04%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 16:54
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -4.61%E -3.04%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -3.90%E -1.51%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-07 16:50
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.61%E -3.04%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 17:04
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.61%E -3.04%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 16:49
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.61%E -3.04%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 17:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -4.61%E -3.04%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -5.77%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 17:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.24%E -3.47%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-07 17:05
NordicBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -5.24%E -3.47%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -4.28%E -1.66%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 16:55
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -5.24%E -3.47%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -4.28%E -1.66%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.24%E -3.47%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 17:04
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%EV -0.925%E -0.348%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 17:03
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 17:00
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -3.53%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 17:05
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 16:59
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 15:00
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-07 17:05
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -5.87%E -3.91%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -11.35%E -4.77%K -8.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 16:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.12%E -4.81%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-07 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -7.12%E -4.81%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.47%EV -8.00%E -3.24%K -5.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 17:03
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.75%E -5.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -3.16%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 16:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43%0.2%2026-09-07 17:04
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68%2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32%0.3%2026-09-07 17:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-09-07 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-09-07 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%0.8%2026-09-07 17:05
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-09-07 17:05
Matchbook◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.2%2026-09-07 17:05
ProphetX◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%1.5%2026-09-07 17:05
Polymarket◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%2.1%2026-09-07 17:05
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%2.3%2026-09-07 17:05