The School of Odds

New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates

2026-07-22 17:36 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New York Yankees (Local)

Prediction 59.41%1.68fair odd
EV -0.183%
Edge -0.109%
Kelly -0.269%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.49%59.34%62.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.601.6865%63%63%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 40.59%2.46fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.585%
Kelly +0.975%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%40.51%40.66%42.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.252.352.352.5044%43%43%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.10%E -5.94%K -17.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +1.46%E +0.585%K +0.975%G +0.014%5.4%2026-07-21 18:00
LowVig.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%EV -3.15%E -1.93%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%EV -0.972%E -0.398%K -0.675%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-21 18:00
BetOnline.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%EV -3.15%E -1.93%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%EV -0.972%E -0.398%K -0.675%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-21 18:00
FanDuel1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -1.78%E -0.737%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-21 17:55
Fanatics1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.60%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 17:59
SportsBet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -7.31%E -4.69%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -3.00%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 17:58
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.72%E -4.28%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.41%E -1.43%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-21 17:55
MyBookie.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -3.75%E -2.31%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -3.81%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-21 18:10
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%EV -0.183%E -0.109%K -0.269%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%EV -4.22%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-21 18:10
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.15%E -1.93%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-21 18:00
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.34%E -2.70%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-21 18:05
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 18:05
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 18:10
Betclic (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -6.25%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 18:09
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 18:03
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 18:05
betano_uk1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.94%E -3.09%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 18:05
ReBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.53%E -3.48%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 18:05
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.97%E -1.19%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 18:10
Unibet (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.31%E -4.69%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 18:05
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.31%E -4.69%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%0.2%2026-07-21 18:00
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-07-21 17:55
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%10.0%2026-07-21 18:05
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.48%1xBet 1.68 (59.8%) / William Hill 2.50 (40.2%)Show details
New York Yankees (Local)Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)Margin
1xBet 1.68 (59.8%)William Hill 2.50 (40.2%)+0.478%