The School of Odds
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New York Mets v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 23:11 UTC

Final: New York Mets 6–2 Kansas City Royals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

62 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 63.32%1.58fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%63.33%63.37%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.511.5569.44%66.24%66.23%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 36.68%2.73fair odd
EV +0.504%
Edge +0.184%
Kelly +0.289%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%36.67%36.63%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.492.602.602.7440.16%38.52%38.46%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 64.32%EV -3.75%E -2.47%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.68%EV +0.504%E +0.184%K +0.289%G +0.001%2.3%2026-07-08 22:30
BetOnline.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 63.92%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 36.08%EV -0.597%E -0.220%K -0.349%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 20:29
LowVig.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 63.92%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 36.08%EV -0.597%E -0.220%K -0.349%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 20:29
GTbets1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV -0.964%E -0.357%K -0.567%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 20:29
Everygame1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV -0.964%E -0.357%K -0.567%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 20:30
1xBet1.55I 64.52%NM 63.27%EV -1.85%E -1.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.73%EV -2.06%E -0.773%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-08 20:30
BetUS1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%EV -2.43%E -0.914%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-08 23:05
BetAnything1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -2.49%E -1.62%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -2.80%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-08 20:30
Fanatics1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.80%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 20:35
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.80%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 20:25
Hard Rock Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.80%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.80%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 20:30
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.80%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 20:29
BetMGM1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.80%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 20:30
FanDuel1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.16%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 20:25
MyBookie.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.16%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 22:54
DraftKings1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.53%E -1.34%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 22:20
Caesars1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -3.90%E -1.49%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 20:30
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.90%E -1.49%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 20:25
Coral1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.90%E -1.49%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 20:29
Ladbrokes (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.90%E -1.49%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 20:30
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.82%E -6.12%K -20.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.90%E -1.49%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 20:45
Unibet (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -2.49%E -1.62%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-08 23:09
Unibet1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -2.49%E -1.62%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-08 23:10
Svenska Spel1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -2.49%E -1.62%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-08 23:10
theScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-08 20:25
TAB1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.75%E -2.47%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 20:40
ReBet1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 20:45
Bet Right1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 21:25
Bovada1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 23:05
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 20:49
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 21:25
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 21:29
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 20:50
Dabble (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.29%E -4.25%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 23:04
Tipico (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.92%E -4.71%K -14.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -4.63%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-08 20:29
Marathon Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -5.00%E -1.93%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 20:23
NordicBet1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -5.73%E -2.23%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 20:40
Betsson1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -5.73%E -2.23%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 20:39
Fliff1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 23:00
Unibet (NL)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 23:10
Unibet (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.12%E -2.04%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 23:09
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.75%E -2.47%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 20:30
LiveScore Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.75%E -2.47%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:10
Virgin Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.75%E -2.47%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:10
BetRivers1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:10
Casumo1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:10
TABtouch1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:10
betPARX1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:10
ATG (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:10
Bally Bet1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:09
Unibet (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 23:00
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 23:09
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:25
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:25
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.47%E -2.54%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:25
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.75%E -2.47%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.30%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 23:09
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.30%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 23:10
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.02%E -3.35%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.30%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 22:59
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -5.65%E -3.79%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.30%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-08 23:10
Betclic (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.88%EV -6.92%E -4.71%K -14.72%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.12%EV -8.67%E -3.48%K -5.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-08 22:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-07-08 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-07-08 23:10
Polymarket1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-07-08 23:10
Novig1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-07-08 23:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%1.3%2026-07-08 23:10
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47%1.6%2026-07-08 23:10
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%2.0%2026-07-08 23:10
Matchbook1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%3.0%2026-07-08 23:10
ProphetX1.54I 64.94%NM 62.62%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.38%3.7%2026-07-08 23:10
BetOpenly1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-07-08 23:04