The School of Odds
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New York Mets v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-07-09 17:11 UTC

Final: New York Mets 7–3 Kansas City Royals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 55.83%1.79fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.84%55.92%57.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.701.701.7660.98%58.70%58.82%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 44.17%2.26fair odd
EV -0.615%
Edge -0.273%
Kelly -0.492%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.71%44.16%44.08%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.182.2548.78%46.03%45.87%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV -1.74%E -0.989%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -2.38%E -1.08%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 16:30
BetUS1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -1.74%E -0.989%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 16:39
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -2.30%E -1.31%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -1.94%E -0.874%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-09 17:04
BetAnything1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.30%E -1.31%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.38%E -1.08%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-09 14:29
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.30%E -1.31%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -5.47%E -2.56%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.30%E -1.31%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 14:24
GTbets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -0.615%E -0.273%K -0.492%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-09 14:30
Everygame1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -0.615%E -0.273%K -0.492%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-09 14:27
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.94%E -0.874%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 14:30
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.94%E -0.874%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 14:29
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.59%E -2.13%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-09 14:25
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 15:34
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 14:30
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.45%E -4.61%K -9.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-09 16:35
Dabble (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.97%E -2.31%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 16:40
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.97%E -2.31%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 17:10
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -3.97%E -2.31%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.45%E -4.61%K -9.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-09 17:10
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -0.615%E -0.273%K -0.492%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-09 15:50
MyBookie.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -3.27%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 15:30
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.71%E -1.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 14:30
Bovada1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -4.15%E -1.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 16:59
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:29
888sport1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 14:30
Mr Green (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 14:30
888sport (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 14:30
SportsBet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.47%E -2.56%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 14:24
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.47%E -2.56%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 16:24
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.53%E -2.65%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-09 17:09
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 15:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 14:55
Unibet (NL)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 15:49
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 15:50
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 14:59
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.71%E -1.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 15:00
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.15%E -1.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 15:19
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 14:30
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 15:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 16:05
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 16:04
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.09%E -2.99%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.45%E -4.61%K -9.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 17:00
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.65%E -3.34%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 14:55
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.65%E -3.34%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 14:29
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.65%E -3.34%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 16:05
NordicBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.65%E -3.34%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -4.59%E -2.13%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 14:59
Betsson1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.65%E -3.34%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -4.59%E -2.13%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 15:00
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:49
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:50
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:49
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:49
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:50
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:50
Bally Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:49
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:49
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.21%E -3.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:50
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.71%EV -1.06%E -0.472%K -0.852%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-09 14:54
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 15:04
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 14:44
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 17:00
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 14:54
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 17:10
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.88%E -4.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-09 15:00
Grosvenor1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV -7.88%E -4.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -4.59%E -2.13%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-09 15:49
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%EV -8.44%E -5.15%K -13.19%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -6.36%E -3.00%K -5.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-09 16:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%0.4%2026-07-09 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-07-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-07-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-07-09 17:10
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-07-09 16:55
BetOpenly1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.1%2026-07-09 16:45
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-09 17:08
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 56.25%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.75%1.6%2026-07-09 17:10
ProphetX1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%2.0%2026-07-09 17:10
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-07-09 17:10