The School of Odds

New York Mets v Boston Red Sox

2026-07-10 23:16 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 55.19%1.81fair odd
EV +1.000%
Edge +0.546%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.32%54.96%55.24%56.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.641.731.721.8361%58%58%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 44.81%2.23fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%45.04%44.76%46.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.122.1750%47%47%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV +1.000%E +0.546%K +1.20%G +0.012%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 19:00
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV +1.000%E +0.546%K +1.20%G +0.012%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -6.35%E -3.04%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 18:29
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV +1.000%E +0.546%K +1.20%G +0.012%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -6.35%E -3.04%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 18:29
1xBet1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -1.21%E -0.675%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV -2.76%E -1.27%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-09 18:09
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.31%E -1.31%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 18:05
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.42%E -1.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-09 20:18
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.97%E -2.28%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.21%E -1.49%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-09 17:55
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.97%E -2.28%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 18:00
Hard Rock Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.97%E -2.28%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 19:40
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.97%E -2.28%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 18:45
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.52%E -2.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.11%E -1.92%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-09 18:00
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.52%E -2.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 18:05
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.52%E -2.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 18:04
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.07%E -2.95%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.01%E -2.36%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 18:05
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.07%E -2.95%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.01%E -2.36%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 18:04
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.07%E -2.95%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.01%E -2.36%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 18:10
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.07%E -2.95%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 17:54
888sport1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.62%E -3.29%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 18:05
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.62%E -3.29%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 18:05
888sport (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.62%E -3.29%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 18:04
Mr Green (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.62%E -3.29%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 18:05
Betclic (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.62%E -3.29%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -5.45%E -2.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 18:00
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.17%E -3.63%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 18:05
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.17%E -3.63%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 18:00
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.83%E -4.69%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 17:55
ReBet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.83%E -4.69%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-09 17:59
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -8.93%E -5.41%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-09 18:00
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -9.49%E -5.78%K -14.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-09 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-07-09 17:55
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.9%2026-07-09 19:35
Novig1.67I 59.88%NM 56.05%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.95%6.8%2026-07-09 20:20
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 55.04%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.96%10.1%2026-07-09 19:35