The School of Odds
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New York Mets v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 23:50 UTC

Final: New York Mets 2–6 Boston Red Sox

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 56.69%1.76fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.78%56.69%59.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.681.681.7364.52%59.69%59.52%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 43.31%2.31fair odd
EV +0.040%
Edge +0.017%
Kelly +0.030%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.79%43.22%43.31%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.212.3148.78%45.25%45.25%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV +0.040%E +0.017%K +0.030%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-10 23:44
GTbets1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -2.49%E -1.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -1.26%E -0.552%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-10 22:25
Everygame1.73I 57.80%NM 56.75%EV -1.92%E -1.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.25%EV -1.69%E -0.746%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-10 22:24
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -3.06%E -1.79%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -2.13%E -0.941%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-10 22:29
LowVig.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -2.49%E -1.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-10 22:24
BetOnline.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -2.49%E -1.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-10 22:20
BetAnything1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -2.49%E -1.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-10 23:19
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -3.06%E -1.79%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-10 22:49
PointsBet (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-10 22:20
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-10 22:55
Unibet (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.46%E -3.91%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 22:49
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.46%E -3.91%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 22:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
Casumo1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
Bally Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 22:49
TABtouch1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.59%E -4.66%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 22:49
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.59%E -4.66%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 22:49
BetRivers1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.59%E -4.66%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 22:49
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.59%E -4.66%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 22:49
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -12.13%E -7.82%K -22.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 23:39
DraftKings1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.42%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-10 23:19
Bovada1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.42%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-10 23:19
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -8.72%E -5.42%K -14.30%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -3.42%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 22:49
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 22:19
Unibet (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.06%E -1.79%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 23:39
FanDuel1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:20
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 23:14
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:29
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:29
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-10 22:19
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-10 22:19
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-10 22:49
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 23:14
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 19:25
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 23:14
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 22:25
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 22:25
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 22:24
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 22:25
SportsBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.59%E -2.56%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 22:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.89%E -3.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 22:54
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.89%E -3.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 22:54
Dabble (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.89%E -3.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 22:20
Betway1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.89%E -3.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-10 23:29
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.89%E -3.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 23:39
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.89%E -3.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 22:20
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -8.19%E -3.86%K -7.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 23:29
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.06%E -1.79%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.05%E -4.31%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 23:19
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.05%E -4.31%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 23:33
Betclic (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.46%E -3.91%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.05%E -4.31%K -8.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-10 23:38
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -8.16%E -5.04%K -13.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -11.22%E -5.47%K -10.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-10 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-07-10 23:40
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-07-10 23:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-07-10 23:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-07-10 23:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-07-10 23:44
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-10 23:15
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-10 22:20
ProphetX1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%2.0%2026-07-10 23:20
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%6.4%2026-07-10 23:35