The School of Odds

Minnesota Twins v Cleveland Guardians

2026-07-09 17:41 — MLB

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Minnesota Twins (Local)

Prediction 45.77%2.19fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.745%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.99%45.70%45.74%46.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.15MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
44.99%2.223Min
46.34%2.158Max
45.70%2.188Mean
45.74%2.186Median
45.77%2.185IQM
45.69%2.189Margin-weighted

Cleveland Guardians (Visit)

Prediction 54.23%1.84fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.711%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%54.30%54.26%55.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.701.751.751.82MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
53.66%1.863Min
55.01%1.818Max
54.30%1.842Mean
54.26%1.843Median
54.23%1.844IQM
54.31%1.841Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMinnesota Twins (Local) ▼Cleveland Guardians (Visit)MarginUpdated
GTbets2.15I 46.51% NM 45.57%EV -1.60% E -0.745% K -1.39% G +0.000%1.80I 55.56% NM 54.43%EV -2.38% E -1.32% K -2.97% G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-08 23:10
FanDuel2.14I 46.73% NM 44.99%EV -2.06% E -0.963% K -1.81% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 55.01%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 19:25
1xBet2.13I 46.95% NM 46.08%EV -2.52% E -1.18% K -2.23% G +0.000%1.82I 54.95% NM 53.92%EV -1.29% E -0.711% K -1.58% G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-09 01:40
BetOnline.ag2.13I 46.95% NM 45.80%EV -2.52% E -1.18% K -2.23% G +0.000%1.80I 55.56% NM 54.20%EV -2.38% E -1.32% K -2.97% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-08 23:15
LowVig.ag2.13I 46.95% NM 45.80%EV -2.52% E -1.18% K -2.23% G +0.000%1.80I 55.56% NM 54.20%EV -2.38% E -1.32% K -2.97% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-08 23:10
Pinnacle2.13I 46.95% NM 45.80%EV -2.52% E -1.18% K -2.23% G +0.000%1.80I 55.56% NM 54.20%EV -2.38% E -1.32% K -2.97% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 01:45
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17% NM 45.36%EV -2.98% E -1.40% K -2.66% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 54.64%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 00:04
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17% NM 45.36%EV -2.98% E -1.40% K -2.66% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 54.64%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 00:05
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17% NM 45.36%EV -2.98% E -1.40% K -2.66% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 54.64%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 01:09
MyBookie.ag2.10I 47.62% NM 45.88%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.78I 56.18% NM 54.12%EV -3.46% E -1.95% K -4.44% G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-08 21:29
Fanatics2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 01:35
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 18:50
Caesars2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 23:11
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 19:55
Betway2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 22:15
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 23:35
Bet Right2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 23:15
Coral2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 00:05
Unibet2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 00:05
Casumo2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 01:14
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 01:14
Bally Bet2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 01:19
betPARX2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 01:25
BetMGM2.10I 47.62% NM 45.31%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 54.69%EV -5.63% E -3.24% K -7.61% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 23:10
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.18% E -3.57% K -8.46% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 18:45
888sport2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.18% E -3.57% K -8.46% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:15
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.18% E -3.57% K -8.46% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:15
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.18% E -3.57% K -8.46% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:15
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.18% E -3.57% K -8.46% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:15
William Hill2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.18% E -3.57% K -8.46% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 19:49
SportsBet2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -3.89% E -1.85% K -3.54% G +0.000%1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -6.72% E -3.91% K -9.33% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 22:44
Bovada2.09I 47.85% NM 45.71%EV -4.35% E -2.08% K -3.99% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 54.29%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:45
DraftKings2.08I 48.08% NM 45.83%EV -4.81% E -2.31% K -4.45% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 54.17%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-08 23:45
PlayUp2.08I 48.08% NM 45.69%EV -4.81% E -2.31% K -4.45% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.31%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 02:00
LeoVegas2.08I 48.08% NM 45.69%EV -4.81% E -2.31% K -4.45% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.31%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 02:25
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08% NM 45.55%EV -4.81% E -2.31% K -4.45% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 54.45%EV -5.63% E -3.24% K -7.61% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 00:05
TABtouch2.08I 48.08% NM 45.55%EV -4.81% E -2.31% K -4.45% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 54.45%EV -5.63% E -3.24% K -7.61% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 00:05
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08% NM 45.55%EV -4.81% E -2.31% K -4.45% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 54.45%EV -5.63% E -3.24% K -7.61% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 00:05
BetRivers2.08I 48.08% NM 45.55%EV -4.81% E -2.31% K -4.45% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 54.45%EV -5.63% E -3.24% K -7.61% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 00:05
NordicBet2.07I 48.31% NM 45.95%EV -5.26% E -2.54% K -4.92% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 54.05%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 23:10
Betsson2.07I 48.31% NM 45.95%EV -5.26% E -2.54% K -4.92% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 54.05%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 23:09
Unibet (UK)2.07I 48.31% NM 45.81%EV -5.26% E -2.54% K -4.92% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 54.19%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-08 21:30
Marathon Bet2.06I 48.54% NM 46.07%EV -5.72% E -2.78% K -5.40% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 53.93%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:40
Grosvenor2.06I 48.54% NM 45.36%EV -5.72% E -2.78% K -5.40% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 54.64%EV -7.26% E -4.25% K -10.23% G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-09 01:30
Fliff2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 20:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:30
Neds2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:29
Dabble (AU)2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.01% E -2.26% K -5.20% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:19
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78% NM 46.19%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 53.81%EV -4.55% E -2.58% K -5.98% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 21:30
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 21:29
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.09% E -2.91% K -6.79% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 21:29
ReBet2.05I 48.78% NM 45.91%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 54.09%EV -5.63% E -3.24% K -7.61% G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-08 18:59
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78% NM 45.77%EV -6.18% E -3.01% K -5.89% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.23%EV -6.18% E -3.57% K -8.46% G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-08 23:44
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00% NM 46.24%EV -8.47% E -4.23% K -8.47% G +0.000%1.72I 58.14% NM 53.76%EV -6.72% E -3.91% K -9.33% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 23:45
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00% NM 45.95%EV -8.47% E -4.23% K -8.47% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 54.05%EV -7.80% E -4.59% K -11.15% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-08 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerMinnesota Twins (Local)Cleveland Guardians (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
BetOpenly2.16I 46.30% NM 46.27%1.86I 53.76% NM 53.73%0.1%2026-07-09 00:06
Polymarket2.13I 46.95% NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05% NM 53.52%1.0%2026-07-08 20:00
Kalshi2.17I 46.08% NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95% NM 54.39%1.0%2026-07-08 22:30
ProphetX2.16I 46.30% NM 45.73%1.82I 54.95% NM 54.27%1.2%2026-07-09 01:35
Novig2.13I 46.95% NM 45.80%1.80I 55.56% NM 54.20%2.5%2026-07-09 01:05
Matchbook2.12I 47.17% NM 45.92%1.80I 55.56% NM 54.08%2.7%2026-07-09 01:40
Smarkets2.02I 49.50% NM 45.55%1.69I 59.17% NM 54.45%8.7%2026-07-08 21:30