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Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Miami Marlins (Local)
Prediction 59.29%1.69fair odd
EV -0.401%
Edge -0.239%
Kelly -0.590%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%59.12%59.31%60.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.621.6863.69%61.70%61.73%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Washington Nationals (Visit)
Prediction 40.71%2.46fair odd
EV +0.159%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.109%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.70%40.88%40.69%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.352.4645.45%42.81%42.55%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Marlins (Local): 59.29%; Washington Nationals (Visit): 40.71%. For Washington Nationals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.456. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.460, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.159%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%EV +0.159%E +0.064%K +0.109%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-09 20:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.248%E -0.101%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-09 18:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.248%E -0.101%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-09 18:43 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%EV -1.06%E -0.437%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-05-09 19:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -1.88%E -0.779%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-05-09 17:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-09 16:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 20:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 19:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -2.69%E -1.13%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 17:13 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.51%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 19:52 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -3.51%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 05:29 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-09 17:13 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 17:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 01:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 20:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 17:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 17:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.73%E -2.02%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.73%E -2.02%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 17:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.13%E -2.20%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 17:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.13%E -2.20%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 17:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.13%E -2.20%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -0.994%E -0.595%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -5.54%E -2.39%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 02:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 19:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 17:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 19:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 19:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-09 19:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -0.401%E -0.239%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -8.39%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 20:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -0.994%E -0.595%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.43%E -4.74%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -1.59%E -0.956%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -10.43%E -4.74%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.95% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 40.05% | -0.1% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 20:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 20:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.81% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 40.19% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 20:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 06:45 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 02:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 19:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 20:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 20:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69% | 1.6% | 2026-05-09 17:14 |