L’École des cotes

Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-09 20:11 UTC

Score final : Miami Marlins 8–7 Washington Nationals

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

61 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prévision 59.29%1.69cote équitable
EV -0.401%
Avantage -0.239%
Kelly -0.590%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.68

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.85%59.12%59.31%60.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.571.621.621.6863.69%61.70%61.73%59.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Washington Nationals (Visiteur)

Prévision 40.71%2.46cote équitable
EV +0.159%
Avantage +0.064%
Kelly +0.109%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.46

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.70%40.88%40.69%43.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.342.352.4645.45%42.81%42.55%40.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (61 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%EV +0.159%E +0.064%K +0.109%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-09 20:10
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.248%E -0.101%K -0.171%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-09 18:44
GTbets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.248%E -0.101%K -0.171%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-09 18:43
Pinnacle1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%EV -1.06%E -0.437%K -0.743%G +0.000%1.8%2026-05-09 19:54
1xBet1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -1.88%E -0.779%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-09 17:09
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-09 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 20:10
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 20:09
PointsBet (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-09 19:10
BetMGM1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-09 20:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 20:09
Neds1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.28%E -0.952%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 20:09
BetUS1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -2.69%E -1.13%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-09 19:04
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 19:04
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 17:13
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.51%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-09 19:52
SportsBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -3.51%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 19:04
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-09 05:29
MyBookie.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-09 17:13
ReBet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-09 17:09
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-09 01:14
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-09 20:04
Fanatics1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-09 17:09
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-09 17:09
Hard Rock Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-09 19:04
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 19:04
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 19:04
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 19:04
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 20:09
Dabble (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 20:09
Betr (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 19:04
Bet Right1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.73%E -2.02%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:04
Marathon Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.73%E -2.02%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 17:09
NordicBet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.13%E -2.20%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 17:09
Betsson1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.13%E -2.20%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 17:09
Coolbet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.13%E -2.20%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 19:04
Svenska Spel1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -0.994%E -0.595%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -5.54%E -2.39%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-09 19:14
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 19:14
Unibet (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 19:14
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 02:39
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 19:34
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 17:08
Unibet (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 19:59
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 19:54
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 20:09
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.36%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 19:04
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:14
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:14
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:14
Casumo1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:14
Grosvenor1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:14
Bally Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:14
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:14
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -2.77%E -1.69%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 19:14
BetRivers1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 19:14
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 19:14
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 19:14
TABtouch1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.37%E -2.06%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.17%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 19:14
Unibet (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -0.401%E -0.239%K -0.590%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -8.39%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-09 20:10
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -0.994%E -0.595%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.43%E -4.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 20:09
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -1.59%E -0.956%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -10.43%E -4.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 20:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
BetOpenly1.67I 59.88%NM 59.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 40.05%-0.1%2026-05-09 20:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-05-09 20:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-05-09 20:10
Novig1.66I 60.24%NM 59.81%2.47I 40.49%NM 40.19%0.7%2026-05-09 20:05
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-05-09 06:45
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-05-09 02:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-05-09 19:50
ProphetX1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%0.9%2026-05-09 20:10
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%0.9%2026-05-09 20:10
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%1.6%2026-05-09 17:14