Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins v St. Louis Cardinals

Inicio: 2026-04-22 16:11 UTC

Final: Miami Marlins 4–1 St. Louis Cardinals

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Predicción 57.06%1.75momio equitativo
EV -0.138%
Ventaja -0.079%
Kelly -0.184%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.83%57.07%57.16%58.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.681.671.7561.73%59.62%59.88%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Predicción 42.94%2.33momio equitativo
EV +0.041%
Ventaja +0.018%
Kelly +0.031%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.77%42.93%42.84%45.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.222.232.3347.62%45.02%44.84%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Miami Marlins (Local): 57.06%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante): 42.94%. Para St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.329. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.330, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.041%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV +0.041%E +0.018%K +0.031%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-22 16:04
Everygame🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV +0.041%E +0.018%K +0.031%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-22 16:04
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -0.818%E -0.354%K -0.624%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-22 16:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -0.818%E -0.354%K -0.624%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-22 16:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -0.818%E -0.354%K -0.624%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-22 16:04
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%EV -1.25%E -0.542%K -0.959%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-22 16:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.25%E -0.542%K -0.959%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-22 16:09
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.25%E -0.542%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-22 16:04
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.11%E -0.924%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-22 16:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-22 16:09
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-22 16:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-22 16:08
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-22 16:09
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 16:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 16:04
Dabble (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 16:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.56%E -4.66%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.39%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 16:09
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.82%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-22 16:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 16:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 16:09
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:09
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:09
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:09
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:09
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:09
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:09
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:09
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 16:09
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 16:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 16:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.25%E -1.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 16:09
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -0.138%E -0.079%K -0.184%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -4.68%E -2.11%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-22 15:04
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.68%E -2.11%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 16:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.68%E -2.11%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 16:09
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.42%E -1.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-22 13:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 14:09
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 14:09
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 14:09
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 16:09
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 16:09
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 16:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 16:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 16:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 16:04
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.70%E -2.82%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 16:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:09
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.56%E -4.66%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 16:04
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -6.40%E -2.94%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 14:09
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.40%E -2.94%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 16:04
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.13%E -2.46%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.40%E -2.94%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 16:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.69%E -3.58%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 13:39
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.69%E -3.58%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 14:19
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.69%E -3.58%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 14:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.69%E -3.58%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 14:09
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.69%E -3.58%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:09
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.56%E -2.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.69%E -3.58%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.42%E -3.91%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.69%E -3.58%K -6.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 16:09
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.28%E -0.740%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.83%E -4.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 18:34
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.83%E -4.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 16:08
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30%0.2%2026-04-22 16:09
Novig1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-04-22 16:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-04-22 16:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-04-22 16:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-04-22 16:09
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-04-22 16:10
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-04-22 16:10
ProphetX1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22%1.2%2026-04-22 16:10
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.3%2026-04-22 16:04
BetOpenly1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%2.0%2026-04-22 16:09