The School of Odds

Miami Marlins v Seattle Mariners

2026-07-08 22:41 — MLB

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Option 1: Miami Marlins (Local)

Odds
2.0548.78%Min
2.1346.94%Mean
2.1546.51%Median
2.2045.45%Max
Consensus probabilities
43.72%2.287Min
45.91%2.178Max
44.34%2.255Mean
44.30%2.257Median
44.35%2.255IQM
44.31%2.257Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.20 under the IQM model: 44.35%

EV -2.42%Edge -1.10%Kelly -2.02%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Seattle Mariners (Visit)

Odds
1.6660.24%Min
1.7158.52%Mean
1.7158.48%Median
1.7955.87%Max
Consensus probabilities
54.09%1.849Min
56.28%1.777Max
55.66%1.797Mean
55.70%1.795Median
55.65%1.797IQM
55.69%1.796Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.79 under the IQM model: 55.65%

EV -0.392%Edge -0.219%Kelly -0.496%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMiami Marlins (Local) ▼Seattle Mariners (Visit)MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -2.42% E -1.10% K -2.02% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -4.84% E -2.83% K -6.82% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-07 20:35
FanDuel2.18I 45.87% NM 44.10%EV -3.31% E -1.52% K -2.81% G +0.000%1.72I 58.14% NM 55.90%EV -4.29% E -2.49% K -5.95% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-07 20:35
1xBet2.17I 46.08% NM 45.20%EV -3.75% E -1.73% K -3.21% G +0.000%1.79I 55.87% NM 54.80%EV -0.392% E -0.219% K -0.496% G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-07 21:05
MyBookie.ag2.16I 46.30% NM 44.47%EV -4.20% E -1.94% K -3.62% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 55.53%EV -3.73% E -2.16% K -5.11% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 22:50
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51% NM 44.73%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 55.27%EV -3.17% E -1.82% K -4.29% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-08 00:00
Fanatics2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -4.84% E -2.83% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 20:35
888sport2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -4.84% E -2.83% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 20:45
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -4.84% E -2.83% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 20:45
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -4.84% E -2.83% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 20:45
Hard Rock Bet2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -4.84% E -2.83% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 23:39
Coolbet2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -4.84% E -2.83% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 00:40
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51% NM 44.16%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 55.84%EV -5.40% E -3.18% K -7.71% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 20:45
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV -4.64% E -2.16% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -7.07% E -4.23% K -10.55% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 20:35
Bet Right2.14I 46.73% NM 44.56%EV -5.08% E -2.38% K -4.46% G +0.000%1.72I 58.14% NM 55.44%EV -4.29% E -2.49% K -5.95% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 20:45
Unibet (UK)2.14I 46.73% NM 44.42%EV -5.08% E -2.38% K -4.46% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.58%EV -4.84% E -2.83% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-07 20:40
PlayUp2.12I 47.17% NM 44.79%EV -5.97% E -2.82% K -5.33% G +0.000%1.72I 58.14% NM 55.21%EV -4.29% E -2.49% K -5.95% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 20:50
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17% NM 44.50%EV -5.97% E -2.82% K -5.33% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 55.50%EV -5.40% E -3.18% K -7.71% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-07 20:40
William Hill2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -6.86% E -3.27% K -6.24% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -3.73% E -2.16% K -5.11% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:39
SportsBet2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -6.86% E -3.27% K -6.24% G +0.000%1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -4.29% E -2.49% K -5.95% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-07 20:35
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62% NM 44.74%EV -6.86% E -3.27% K -6.24% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 55.26%EV -5.40% E -3.18% K -7.71% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 20:40
ReBet2.10I 47.62% NM 44.59%EV -6.86% E -3.27% K -6.24% G +0.000%1.69I 59.17% NM 55.41%EV -5.96% E -3.52% K -8.63% G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-07 22:44
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62% NM 44.30%EV -6.86% E -3.27% K -6.24% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 55.70%EV -7.07% E -4.23% K -10.55% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 20:54
Fliff2.05I 48.78% NM 45.91%EV -9.08% E -4.43% K -8.64% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 54.09%EV -3.17% E -1.82% K -4.29% G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-08 00:35
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78% NM 44.74%EV -9.08% E -4.43% K -8.64% G +0.000%1.66I 60.24% NM 55.26%EV -7.63% E -4.59% K -11.55% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-07 22:45
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78% NM 44.74%EV -9.08% E -4.43% K -8.64% G +0.000%1.66I 60.24% NM 55.26%EV -7.63% E -4.59% K -11.55% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-08 00:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerMiami Marlins (Local)Seattle Mariners (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.17I 46.08% NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95% NM 54.39%1.0%2026-07-08 00:25
Polymarket2.17I 46.08% NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95% NM 54.39%1.0%2026-07-08 00:25
Novig2.17I 46.08% NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95% NM 54.39%1.0%2026-07-08 01:05
ProphetX2.12I 47.17% NM 44.79%1.72I 58.14% NM 55.21%5.3%2026-07-08 00:35
Smarkets2.02I 49.50% NM 44.96%1.65I 60.61% NM 55.04%10.1%2026-07-07 20:40
Matchbook1.90I 52.63% NM 46.18%1.63I 61.35% NM 53.82%14.0%2026-07-08 00:30