Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies

2026-07-29 16:11 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Predicción 41.48%2.41momio equitativo
EV -2.11%
Ventaja -0.896%
Kelly -1.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.66%41.46%41.38%43.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.302.302.3645.45%43.54%43.48%42.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante)

Predicción 58.52%1.71momio equitativo
EV -1.68%
Ventaja -1.00%
Kelly -2.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.85%58.54%58.62%59.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.631.621.6863.69%61.51%61.73%59.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -2.11%E -0.896%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -2.27%E -1.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-29 01:39
LowVig.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -2.11%E -0.896%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -2.27%E -1.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-29 01:39
FanDuel2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -2.11%E -0.896%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-28 20:25
Bovada2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -2.11%E -0.896%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-28 21:39
1xBet2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -1.68%E -1.00%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-29 01:47
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.44%E -2.08%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-29 00:59
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-29 01:09
Hard Rock Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-29 01:49
Fliff2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.78%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-29 01:44
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -3.36%E -1.44%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-28 23:59
Unibet (NL)2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -3.36%E -1.44%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-28 23:59
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -3.36%E -1.44%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-28 23:59
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -3.36%E -1.44%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-28 23:59
Casumo2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.77%E -1.63%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-29 00:00
Unibet2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.77%E -1.63%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-28 23:59
LeoVegas (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.77%E -1.63%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-28 23:59
betPARX2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.77%E -1.63%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-29 00:00
Bally Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.77%E -1.63%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-28 23:58
ATG (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.77%E -1.63%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-28 23:59
SportsBet2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -4.19%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -6.95%E -4.37%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-28 20:25
Caesars2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.44%E -2.08%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-29 01:40
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-29 01:44
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-29 02:04
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 00:54
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 00:54
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 20:34
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 20:34
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 20:39
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 20:34
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 20:34
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 00:00
TABtouch2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 23:59
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 23:59
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 01:44
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.36%E -3.98%K -10.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 20:24
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.60%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.36%E -3.98%K -10.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 00:55
DraftKings2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -5.02%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -4.02%E -2.45%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-29 00:55
Marathon Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.43%E -2.38%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 01:44
NordicBet2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.85%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-29 01:39
Betsson2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.85%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.61%E -2.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-29 01:39
Betclic (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 41.65%EV -5.85%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-29 01:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.44%E -2.08%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:40
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.44%E -2.08%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:40
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.44%E -2.08%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:40
ReBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-29 00:54
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.19%E -3.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-29 00:54
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.78%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 00:54
betano_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.78%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 00:53
Grosvenor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-29 00:00
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.75%E -3.98%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.27%E -1.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-29 01:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.75%E -3.98%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.27%E -1.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-29 01:39
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -8.75%E -3.98%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%EV -6.95%E -4.37%K -11.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-29 00:54
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -8.75%E -3.98%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -7.53%E -4.77%K -12.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-29 00:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.41I 41.49%NM 41.22%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.78%0.7%2026-07-29 02:05
Polymarket2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-28 18:45
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-07-28 19:00
ProphetX2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-07-29 02:10
Smarkets2.16I 46.30%NM 42.09%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.91%10.0%2026-07-29 00:55