Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins v New York Mets

Início: 2026-09-08 22:41 UTC

Final: Miami Marlins 5–7 New York Mets

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

66 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Previsão 51.15%1.95odd justa
EV -0.249%
Vantagem -0.128%
Kelly -0.263%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.00%51.31%51.15%53.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.771.861.851.9556.50%53.77%54.05%51.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

New York Mets (Visitante)

Previsão 48.85%2.05odd justa
EV +2.58%
Vantagem +1.23%
Kelly +2.34%
Crescimento +0.060%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.56%48.69%48.85%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.901.971.962.1052.63%50.88%51.02%47.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Miami Marlins (Local): 51.15%; New York Mets (Visitante): 48.85%. Para New York Mets (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.05. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.10, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.58%.

Odds das casas de apostas (66 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV +2.58%E +1.23%K +2.34%G +0.060%2.3%2026-09-08 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -8.95%E -5.03%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -0.354%E -0.174%K -0.341%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-08 15:14
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -1.33%E -0.659%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 20:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -1.33%E -0.659%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 20:25
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.30%E -1.20%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-08 21:09
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.30%E -1.20%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-08 21:10
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.30%E -1.20%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-08 20:35
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.30%E -1.20%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-08 20:38
theScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-08 20:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 20:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 20:25
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 20:10
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 20:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 20:10
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 20:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 20:10
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 20:03
Dabble (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.90%E -3.79%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.31%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-08 20:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.78%E -0.929%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.80%E -1.41%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-08 20:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.78%E -0.929%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.80%E -1.41%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-08 20:25
GTbets🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.78%E -0.929%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.80%E -1.41%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-08 20:25
BetUS🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.78%E -0.929%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.80%E -1.41%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-08 22:15
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.90%EV -2.30%E -1.20%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.10%EV -3.29%E -1.66%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-08 21:20
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.26%EV -0.249%E -0.128%K -0.263%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%EV -3.77%E -1.92%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-08 22:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -3.77%E -1.92%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-08 21:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -3.77%E -1.92%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-08 21:10
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.77%E -1.92%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 22:05
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -6.90%E -3.79%K -8.41%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -3.77%E -1.92%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 20:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -3.77%E -1.92%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 20:30
FanDuel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -3.32%E -1.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -4.26%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 20:20
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.26%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 20:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.26%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 22:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -4.26%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 20:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -4.26%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 20:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -2.81%E -1.48%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 20:20
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -2.81%E -1.48%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 22:20
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 20:25
ReBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 21:10
betfred_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 20:35
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 20:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 20:20
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 20:35
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 20:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 21:10
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 20:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -4.85%E -2.61%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 21:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 20:25
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 20:24
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 21:09
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 20:35
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 20:35
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.75%E -2.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 20:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.24%E -2.70%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 20:20
Neds🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.24%E -2.70%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 20:20
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.85%E -2.61%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.24%E -2.70%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 20:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.88%E -3.19%K -7.00%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.24%E -2.70%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 21:10
Bovada🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -2.81%E -1.48%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -6.22%E -3.24%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 22:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.06%EV -5.88%E -3.19%K -7.00%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.94%EV -6.22%E -3.24%K -6.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 21:10
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.03%EV -9.46%E -5.34%K -12.28%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.97%EV -6.22%E -3.24%K -6.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 20:25
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.30%E -1.20%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.70%E -3.51%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 22:00
Fliff🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.70%E -3.51%K -7.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 22:15
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.70%E -3.51%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 22:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.70%E -3.51%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 22:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.70%E -3.51%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 22:05
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.70%E -3.51%K -7.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 20:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -7.41%E -4.09%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.19%E -3.79%K -7.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 22:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-09-08 22:15
Matchbook◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.63%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.37%0.3%2026-09-08 22:15
ProphetX◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.50%2.01I 49.75%NM 49.50%0.5%2026-09-08 22:15
Novig◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-09-08 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-09-08 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-09-08 22:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-09-08 22:15
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-09-08 21:50
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%2.1%2026-09-08 21:50
BetOpenly◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%2.2%2026-09-08 22:15