Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers

Inicio: 2026-09-12 20:11 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Predicción 40.02%2.50momio equitativo
EV +2.04%
Ventaja +0.800%
Kelly +1.32%
Crecimiento +0.027%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.50%39.96%40.00%41.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.292.422.402.5543.67%41.38%41.67%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Visitante)

Predicción 59.98%1.67momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.622%
Kelly -1.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.82%60.04%60.00%62.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.471.581.581.6568.03%63.39%63.29%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Miami Marlins (Local): 40.02%; Los Angeles Dodgers (Visitante): 59.98%. Para Miami Marlins (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.50. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.04%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV +2.04%E +0.800%K +1.32%G +0.027%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-12 19:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +2.04%E +0.800%K +1.32%G +0.027%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +2.04%E +0.800%K +1.32%G +0.027%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 19:10
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +2.04%E +0.800%K +1.32%G +0.027%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -8.22%E -5.38%K -15.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-12 20:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +2.04%E +0.800%K +1.32%G +0.027%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -8.22%E -5.38%K -15.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-12 20:10
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +2.04%E +0.800%K +1.32%G +0.027%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -8.22%E -5.38%K -15.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-12 20:10
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.039%E +0.016%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 19:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.039%E +0.016%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 19:15
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.039%E +0.016%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 17:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.039%E +0.016%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 19:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +0.039%E +0.016%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -10.02%E -6.68%K -20.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 20:10
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -0.761%E -0.307%K -0.514%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 18:30
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -0.761%E -0.307%K -0.514%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -0.761%E -0.307%K -0.514%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -8.82%E -5.81%K -16.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 19:10
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.61%EV -1.16%E -0.470%K -0.790%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.39%EV -2.83%E -1.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-12 20:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -1.96%E -0.801%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -2.83%E -1.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-12 17:15
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.96%E -0.801%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-12 17:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.96%E -0.801%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-12 17:15
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -1.96%E -0.801%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -11.82%E -8.04%K -25.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 20:10
GTbets🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%EV -2.36%E -0.968%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%EV -1.63%E -0.991%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-12 17:10
FanDuel🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%EV -2.36%E -0.968%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%EV -5.22%E -3.31%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-12 17:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%EV -3.16%E -1.31%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%EV -1.63%E -0.991%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-12 17:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%EV -3.16%E -1.31%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%EV -1.63%E -0.991%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-12 17:10
SportsBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -3.16%E -1.31%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 17:15
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -3.56%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -1.03%E -0.622%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-12 18:10
BetUS🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.35%EV -3.56%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.65%EV -2.23%E -1.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-12 20:05
BetAnything🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -3.56%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV -2.83%E -1.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-12 20:05
Bovada🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.75%EV -3.56%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.25%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-12 19:57
MyBookie.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 17:10
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 17:28
ReBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 17:15
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 18:30
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 19:39
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-12 18:35
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-12 19:34
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.22%E -3.31%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 19:20
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.22%E -3.31%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 19:20
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 17:30
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 17:10
Dabble (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.83%E -1.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-12 20:09
DraftKings🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-12 17:15
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 17:10
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 17:10
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.22%E -5.38%K -15.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:45
NordicBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.16%E -2.18%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -5.22%E -3.31%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 19:40
Betsson🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.16%E -2.18%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -5.22%E -3.31%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -2.23%E -1.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 17:10
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.83%E -1.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-12 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.83%E -1.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-12 18:30
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 17:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.22%E -3.31%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 20:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.22%E -3.31%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 17:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -6.36%E -2.72%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:04
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.42%E -4.12%K -11.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:15
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 19:59
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.52%EV -8.36%E -3.65%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.48%EV -6.42%E -4.12%K -11.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 19:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-12 19:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-12 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-12 19:50
ProphetX2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%0.7%2026-09-12 20:10
Novig2.53I 39.53%NM 39.18%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.82%0.9%2026-09-12 20:10
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-09-12 17:10
Polymarket2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-09-12 20:10
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%1.3%2026-09-12 20:10
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.1%2026-09-12 20:10
BetOpenly2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%3.7%2026-09-12 20:05