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Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kansas City Royals (Local)
Prediction 54.45%1.84fair odd
EV +0.187%
Edge +0.101%
Kelly +0.222%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.77%54.51%54.43%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.731.8460.61%57.74%57.80%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cleveland Guardians (Visit)
Prediction 45.55%2.20fair odd
EV +2.03%
Edge +0.908%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.033%
assuming max odds 2.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%45.49%45.57%47.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.102.2450.00%47.46%47.62%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Royals (Local): 54.45%; Cleveland Guardians (Visit): 45.55%. For Cleveland Guardians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%EV +2.03%E +0.908%K +1.64%G +0.033% | 2.1% | 2026-05-07 16:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.07%E -5.43%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.212%E +0.096%K +0.176%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 18:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%EV -2.54%E -1.42%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%EV -1.61%E -0.746%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%EV -2.54%E -1.42%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%EV -1.61%E -0.746%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -2.54%E -1.42%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -6.35%E -3.69%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.07%E -0.961%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -2.54%E -1.42%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -2.52%E -1.18%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -2.54%E -1.42%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -2.52%E -1.18%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.43%E -1.62%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.53%E -5.07%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.43%E -1.62%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.53%E -5.07%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.43%E -1.62%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.53%E -5.07%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.43%E -1.62%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.53%E -5.07%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.43%E -1.62%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.53%E -5.07%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.43%E -1.62%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -0.358%E -0.196%K -0.431%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV -3.89%E -1.84%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30%EV +0.187%E +0.101%K +0.222%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:03 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:03 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.07%E -5.43%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -4.17%E -2.37%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -4.80%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:07 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -5.25%E -2.53%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 18:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.25%E -2.53%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.25%E -2.53%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%EV -9.61%E -5.79%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -5.25%E -2.53%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -10.16%E -6.16%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -5.25%E -2.53%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -6.35%E -3.69%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -5.71%E -2.76%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.17%E -2.37%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.17%E -2.99%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 18:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 18:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 18:02 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -7.08%E -3.47%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -7.08%E -3.47%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -2.54%E -1.42%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.23%EV -8.90%E -4.45%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.90%E -4.45%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -9.61%E -5.79%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -8.90%E -4.45%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 54.09% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.91% | -0.1% | 2026-05-07 18:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.0% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23% | 1.1% | 2026-05-07 18:09 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46% | 1.5% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 18:10 |