Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kansas City Royals v Chicago Cubs

2026-08-08 23:10 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Predicción 39.78%2.51momio equitativo
EV -0.553%
Ventaja -0.221%
Kelly -0.368%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.90%39.79%39.80%42.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.402.402.5044.44%41.72%41.67%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Predicción 60.22%1.66momio equitativo
EV +0.569%
Ventaja +0.341%
Kelly +0.850%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.84%60.21%60.20%61.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.581.581.6765.36%63.12%63.29%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Kansas City Royals (Local): 39.78%; Chicago Cubs (Visitante): 60.22%. Para Chicago Cubs (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.66. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 1.67, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.569%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%EV -5.33%E -2.24%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%EV +0.569%E +0.341%K +0.850%G +0.005%1.9%2026-08-08 00:30
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -10.50%E -4.67%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -1.24%E -0.755%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 02:50
Caesars🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%EV -0.553%E -0.221%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%EV -2.44%E -1.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-08 00:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%EV -0.553%E -0.221%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%EV -2.44%E -1.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-08 02:40
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%EV -0.553%E -0.221%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-08 01:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV -0.950%E -0.382%K -0.638%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-08 00:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV -0.950%E -0.382%K -0.638%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-08 00:55
BetUS🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%EV -2.14%E -0.871%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-08 00:55
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-08 00:30
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -4.93%E -2.06%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-07 22:35
FanDuel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -5.33%E -2.24%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 22:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -8.11%E -3.51%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 00:10
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -3.34%E -1.37%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.65%E -2.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-08 00:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -3.34%E -1.37%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.65%E -2.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-08 00:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.65%E -2.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 00:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.65%E -2.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 00:30
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.65%E -2.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 02:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.65%E -2.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 02:05
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.65%E -2.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 19:30
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-08 02:00
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 19:20
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 23:15
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 02:05
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 23:35
NordicBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.72%E -2.42%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 02:11
Betsson🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.72%E -2.42%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 02:10
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-08 02:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-08 02:05
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-08 02:04
DraftKings🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV -2.94%E -1.20%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 02:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 19:25
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 19:25
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 00:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 00:30
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 00:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 00:30
Bally Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 00:30
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 00:30
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.33%E -2.24%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 19:18
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.33%E -2.24%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 22:30
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.33%E -2.24%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 00:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -5.72%E -2.42%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 02:04
ReBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 23:10
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 22:45
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.06%E -3.88%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 02:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.06%E -3.88%K -10.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 02:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.06%E -3.88%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 00:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.06%E -3.88%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 00:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%EV -7.26%E -4.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 00:50
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -7.71%E -3.32%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -7.86%E -5.14%K -14.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 00:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.86%E -5.14%K -14.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 02:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%1.2%2026-08-08 02:10
Novig2.53I 39.53%NM 38.89%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.11%1.6%2026-08-08 02:50
Polymarket2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.1%2026-08-07 23:30
ProphetX2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%2.5%2026-08-08 02:20
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 40.21%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.79%10.0%2026-08-08 02:05
Arbitraje (3 combinaciones) +0.12%Caesars 2.50 (40.0%) / 1xBet 1.67 (60.0%)Ver las 3 combinaciones
Kansas City Royals (Local)Chicago Cubs (Visitante)Margen
Caesars🎯 2.50 (40.0%)1xBet🎯 1.67 (60.0%)+0.120%
Hard Rock Bet🎯 2.50 (40.0%)1xBet🎯 1.67 (60.0%)+0.120%
GTbets🎯 2.50 (40.0%)1xBet🎯 1.67 (60.0%)+0.120%