The School of Odds

Houston Astros v Baltimore Orioles

2026-07-18 20:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Houston Astros (Local)

Prediction 50.31%1.99fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.973%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.36%50.40%51.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.881.9556%53%53%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 49.69%2.01fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.560%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.41%49.64%49.60%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.821.921.911.9955%52%52%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.90%E -0.973%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-17 17:39
BetOnline.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.90%E -0.973%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-17 17:39
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -1.12%E -0.560%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-17 20:04
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.91%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 17:39
Caesars1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.91%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 18:04
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.91%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 18:14
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.91%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 20:14
MyBookie.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -4.41%E -2.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -3.60%E -1.86%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 20:04
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.41%E -2.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 18:09
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.41%E -2.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.59%E -2.94%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 17:40
PointsBet (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.41%E -2.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.59%E -2.94%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 17:40
FanDuel1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -4.92%E -2.60%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -2.61%E -1.33%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 17:39
DraftKings1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.92%E -2.60%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.10%E -2.12%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 19:59
Bet Right1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -3.60%E -1.86%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 17:44
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.10%E -2.12%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 17:44
SportsBet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 17:39
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 19:59
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 19:59
Betclic (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.92%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 20:02
ReBet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.92%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 20:14
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.93%E -3.74%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 20:03
betano_uk1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.93%E -3.74%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 20:00
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.93%E -3.74%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 17:44
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.93%E -3.74%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 17:44
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.93%E -3.74%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.09%E -2.67%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 17:44
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -7.93%E -4.34%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 18:19
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.41%EV -9.44%E -5.25%K -11.80%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -9.07%E -4.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-17 19:59
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.28%EV -9.44%E -5.25%K -11.80%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -9.56%E -5.25%K -11.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-17 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 52.00%2.08I 48.08%NM 48.00%0.2%2026-07-17 17:59
Polymarket1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-17 18:34
Novig1.90I 52.63%NM 51.53%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47%2.1%2026-07-17 20:09
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 50.41%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%10.2%2026-07-17 19:59