A Escola das Odds

Cleveland Guardians v Chicago Cubs

Início: 2026-04-05 20:41 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

44 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Previsão 46.66%2.14odd justa
EV -0.140%
Vantagem -0.066%
Kelly -0.123%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.14

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.31%46.92%46.75%51.07%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.801.982.022.1455.56%50.45%49.50%46.73%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Previsão 53.34%1.87odd justa
EV +2.94%
Vantagem +1.52%
Kelly +3.16%
Crescimento +0.093%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.93

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.93%53.08%53.25%54.69%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.701.821.801.9358.82%54.88%55.56%51.81%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (44 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV +2.94%E +1.52%K +3.16%G +0.093%5.9%2026-04-05 20:39
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV +2.94%E +1.52%K +3.16%G +0.093%5.9%2026-04-05 20:40
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV +2.94%E +1.52%K +3.16%G +0.093%5.9%2026-04-05 20:39
Unibet (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV +2.94%E +1.52%K +3.16%G +0.093%5.9%2026-04-05 20:40
betPARX1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV +2.94%E +1.52%K +3.16%G +0.093%5.9%2026-04-05 20:39
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +1.87%E +0.981%K +2.06%G +0.039%7.0%2026-04-05 20:40
GTbets1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -11.34%E -5.97%K -12.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +1.34%E +0.705%K +1.49%G +0.020%5.3%2026-04-05 20:39
LiveScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV +1.34%E +0.705%K +1.49%G +0.020%7.3%2026-04-05 20:39
Virgin Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV +1.34%E +0.705%K +1.49%G +0.020%7.3%2026-04-05 20:40
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV +0.806%E +0.427%K +0.906%G +0.007%7.6%2026-04-05 20:39
Bally Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV +0.806%E +0.427%K +0.906%G +0.007%7.6%2026-04-05 20:40
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%EV -15.07%E -8.28%K -18.38%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%EV +0.273%E +0.145%K +0.310%G +0.001%8.1%2026-04-05 20:39
LeoVegas1.81I 55.25%NM 50.95%EV -15.54%E -8.59%K -19.18%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV +0.273%E +0.145%K +0.310%G +0.001%8.4%2026-04-05 20:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -16.01%E -8.89%K -20.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -0.261%E -0.139%K -0.300%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 20:40
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -16.01%E -8.89%K -20.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -1.33%E -0.717%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-05 20:37
Unibet (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -4.81%E -2.36%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -2.39%E -1.31%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-05 20:35
Pinnacle2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%EV -0.140%E -0.066%K -0.123%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%EV -3.46%E -1.91%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.0%2026-04-05 20:39
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -9.01%E -4.62%K -9.48%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -3.46%E -1.91%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-05 20:40
BetUS2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%EV -0.140%E -0.066%K -0.123%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-05 18:20
LowVig.ag2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -0.607%E -0.285%K -0.537%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-05 19:15
BetOnline.ag2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -0.607%E -0.285%K -0.537%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-05 19:15
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 20:30
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 20:34
Hard Rock Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 20:34
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 20:15
Dabble (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 20:24
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.67%E -3.34%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 20:19
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.67%E -3.34%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 05:45
FanDuel2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -2.94%E -1.41%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.53%E -2.53%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-05 18:05
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.53%E -2.53%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 20:30
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.53%E -2.53%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 20:29
Bovada2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -3.41%E -1.65%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -5.06%E -2.84%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-05 18:16
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.67%E -3.34%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.06%E -2.84%K -6.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 20:05
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.59%E -3.16%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-05 12:44
Caesars2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.59%E -3.16%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-05 17:14
SportsBet2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -3.87%E -1.88%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.59%E -3.16%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 18:04
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.59%E -3.16%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 15:14
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.66%E -3.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 12:45
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.66%E -3.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 12:44
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.66%E -3.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 12:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.66%E -3.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 12:44
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.67%E -3.34%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.66%E -3.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 18:15
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.19%E -4.13%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 20:04
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%EV -9.47%E -4.88%K -10.08%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%EV -9.33%E -5.49%K -13.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 20:39
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%0.8%2026-04-05 20:40
BetOpenly2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%0.8%2026-04-05 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%1.1%2026-04-05 20:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%1.1%2026-04-05 20:40
Novig2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%1.4%2026-04-05 20:39
ProphetX2.14I 46.73%NM 45.96%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04%1.7%2026-04-05 20:39
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%2.3%2026-04-05 20:39
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%3.1%2026-04-05 20:40
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.60%9.9%2026-04-05 20:35
Polymarket1.04I 96.15%NM 49.51%1.02I 98.04%NM 50.49%94.2%2026-04-05 20:40