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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates

2026-08-01 22:41 UTC — MLB

胜负盘

35 家博彩公司 (12 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Cincinnati Reds (主队)

预测 46.91%2.13公平赔率
EV -0.085%
优势 -0.040%
Kelly -0.075%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.13

博彩公司预测分布
45.94%46.97%46.87%50.00%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.902.022.022.1352.63%49.59%49.50%46.95%最小值均值中位数最大值

Pittsburgh Pirates (客队)

预测 53.09%1.88公平赔率
EV +0.874%
优势 +0.460%
Kelly +0.971%
增长率 +0.008%

假设最高赔率为 1.90

博彩公司预测分布
50.00%53.03%53.13%54.06%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.721.801.801.9058.14%55.54%55.56%52.63%最小值均值中位数最大值

对于胜负盘，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)估计各选项的概率为：Cincinnati Reds (主队)：46.91%；Pittsburgh Pirates (客队)：53.09%。 对于“Pittsburgh Pirates (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为1.88。 有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的赔率；当前最佳赔率为1.90，由此产生+0.874%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (35 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼利润率更新时间
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.87%E -5.72%K -12.08%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.874%E +0.460%K +0.971%G +0.008%5.3%2026-07-31 16:55
Hard Rock Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -0.719%E -0.385%K -0.827%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-31 18:19
1xBet2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -2.90%E -1.40%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -1.25%E -0.672%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-31 17:04
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.78%E -0.963%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-31 16:54
SportsBet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -8.06%E -4.11%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -2.31%E -1.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 16:54
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.84%E -1.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-31 18:09
Betr (AU)1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -6.65%E -3.34%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -3.37%E -1.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-31 18:09
GTbets2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%EV -0.085%E -0.040%K -0.075%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-31 18:09
LowVig.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -0.554%E -0.261%K -0.494%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-31 18:09
BetOnline.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -0.554%E -0.261%K -0.494%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-31 18:10
MyBookie.ag2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -4.31%E -2.11%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-31 20:08
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-31 18:09
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-31 18:08
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-31 18:09
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-31 18:09
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-31 18:09
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 20:04
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 18:09
Ladbrokes (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 18:10
Neds2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 18:09
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-31 17:04
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-31 17:00
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-31 17:04
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-31 17:05
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.44%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-31 17:19
DraftKings2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.31%E -2.11%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.97%E -2.77%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-31 18:09
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.97%E -2.77%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 18:14
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.97%E -2.77%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 18:14
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.50%E -3.09%K -7.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-31 20:10
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.50%E -3.09%K -7.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-31 20:04
betano_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 20:04
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.18%E -3.09%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 20:04
ReBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.53%E -4.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 20:04
Unibet (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%EV -9.94%E -5.17%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.75%EV -8.68%E -5.05%K -12.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-31 20:04
Winamax (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%EV -9.94%E -5.17%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.75%EV -8.68%E -5.05%K -12.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-31 20:05
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (4)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-07-31 16:55
Polymarket2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-07-31 16:55
Novig2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%6.0%2026-07-31 20:08
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.75%10.2%2026-07-31 20:05
套利（3 种组合） +0.42%GTbets 2.13 (47.1%) / Paddy Power 1.90 (52.9%)显示全部 3 种组合
Cincinnati Reds (主队)Pittsburgh Pirates (客队)利润率
GTbets 2.13 (47.1%)Paddy Power 1.90 (52.9%)+0.422%
LowVig.ag 2.12 (47.3%)Paddy Power 1.90 (52.7%)+0.199%
BetOnline.ag 2.12 (47.3%)Paddy Power 1.90 (52.7%)+0.199%