Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds v Miami Marlins

2026-08-16 17:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Predicción 46.69%2.14momio equitativo
EV +0.373%
Ventaja +0.174%
Kelly +0.324%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.57%46.66%46.70%48.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.032.022.1552.36%49.36%49.50%46.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Miami Marlins (Visitante)

Predicción 53.31%1.88momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.739%
Kelly -1.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.72%53.34%53.30%54.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.741.801.801.8557.47%55.56%55.56%54.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 46.69%; Miami Marlins (Visitante): 53.31%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.14. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.15, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.373%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV +0.373%E +0.174%K +0.324%G +0.001%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-16 01:52
GTbets🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%EV -0.561%E -0.263%K -0.496%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%EV -3.50%E -1.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-16 01:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -1.03%E -0.485%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.50%E -1.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-16 01:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -1.03%E -0.485%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.50%E -1.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-16 01:54
BetUS🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -1.03%E -0.485%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.50%E -1.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-16 01:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.96%E -0.934%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-15 22:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.96%E -0.934%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.63%E -3.18%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 18:24
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -2.43%E -1.16%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -1.37%E -0.739%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-16 01:55
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.43%E -1.16%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-16 00:29
DraftKings🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -2.89%E -1.39%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -5.63%E -3.18%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 02:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.83%E -1.86%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.50%E -1.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 18:24
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 18:24
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 22:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 22:09
BetAnything🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-16 00:04
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-16 01:20
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-16 01:54
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.63%E -3.18%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 02:39
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.63%E -3.18%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 01:44
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 18:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 18:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.30%E -2.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 18:29
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -2.97%E -1.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 21:44
Bet Right🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.10%E -2.86%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 18:24
Bovada🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -5.23%E -2.58%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -3.50%E -1.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-15 21:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.70%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 22:09
Neds🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.70%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 22:09
Coolbet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.70%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 23:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.70%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.57%E -2.55%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 01:24
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.70%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.57%E -2.55%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 01:54
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.70%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.57%E -2.55%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 01:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -5.70%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -5.63%E -3.18%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 18:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.37%E -0.739%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 23:49
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.37%E -0.739%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 23:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.37%E -0.739%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 23:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.37%E -0.739%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 23:49
Dabble (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -2.97%E -1.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 02:34
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 21:49
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 21:44
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 22:05
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.03%E -2.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 23:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.10%E -2.86%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 18:29
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.63%E -3.18%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 18:24
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:22
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:23
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -7.56%E -3.82%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -7.23%E -4.16%K -9.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 23:40
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -8.03%E -4.08%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 23:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -8.03%E -4.08%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 23:49
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -8.03%E -4.08%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 23:49
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -8.03%E -4.08%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 23:49
Bally Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -8.03%E -4.08%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 23:48
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -8.03%E -4.08%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 23:49
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -8.50%E -4.34%K -8.85%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -2.43%E -1.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 23:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.03%EV -8.50%E -4.34%K -8.85%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.97%EV -7.23%E -4.16%K -9.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 18:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -8.96%E -4.60%K -9.44%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -3.50%E -1.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 23:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -8.96%E -4.60%K -9.44%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -3.50%E -1.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 23:49
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%EV -10.83%E -5.67%K -11.90%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.76%EV -5.10%E -2.86%K -6.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 23:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-08-16 01:55
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-08-16 00:04
ProphetX2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-08-16 02:10
Novig2.13I 46.95%NM 46.21%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.79%1.6%2026-08-16 01:50
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%3.0%2026-08-16 00:20
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%9.1%2026-08-16 02:05

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