The School of Odds

Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians

2026-07-28 23:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prediction 45.36%2.20fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.516%
Kelly -0.954%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%45.38%45.36%47.37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.092.102.1850.51%47.80%47.62%45.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cleveland Guardians (Visit)

Prediction 54.64%1.83fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.911%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.62%54.64%55.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.751.751.8060.24%57.26%57.14%55.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -1.13%E -0.516%K -0.954%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -2.73%E -1.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-27 20:15
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.03%E -0.941%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.73%E -1.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-27 20:15
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.03%E -0.941%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.73%E -1.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-27 20:15
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.49%E -1.16%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.64%E -0.911%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-27 20:25
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.49%E -1.16%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-27 20:25
FanDuel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.85%E -1.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.83%E -2.17%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-27 17:45
MyBookie.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.85%E -1.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.83%E -2.17%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-27 20:15
DraftKings2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.85%E -1.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-27 20:15
Bovada2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34%EV -4.30%E -2.04%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.66%EV -4.37%E -2.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-27 19:00
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.28%E -1.85%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 20:15
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.28%E -1.85%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 20:15
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.28%E -1.85%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 20:29
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.37%E -2.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 20:15
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.37%E -2.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 20:15
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.37%E -2.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 20:15
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.37%E -2.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 20:15
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 20:15
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 17:45
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:20
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.66%E -2.72%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.37%E -2.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 20:15
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -5.66%E -2.72%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.46%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-27 20:14
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.66%E -2.72%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.01%E -3.49%K -8.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 17:45
Betsson2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.11%E -2.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.83%E -2.17%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 20:15
NordicBet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.11%E -2.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.83%E -2.17%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 20:15
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.02%E -3.43%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.28%E -1.85%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 20:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.02%E -3.43%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.28%E -1.85%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 20:15
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.02%E -3.43%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-27 20:15
ReBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.02%E -3.43%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.65%E -4.53%K -11.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 20:15
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.29%E -4.64%K -9.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.64%E -0.911%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 17:45
Unibet (FR)1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63%EV -9.74%E -4.90%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%EV -8.74%E -5.24%K -13.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-27 20:15
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -10.20%E -5.15%K -10.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.29%E -5.60%K -14.08%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-27 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 47.01%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.99%-0.1%2026-07-27 18:00
Polymarket2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-07-27 20:15
Novig2.11I 47.39%NM 46.72%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.28%1.4%2026-07-27 20:15
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%10.1%2026-07-27 20:15