L’École des cotes

Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians

2026-07-28 23:11 UTC — MLB

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prévision 45.33%2.21cote équitable
EV -1.18%
Avantage -0.540%
Kelly -0.997%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.18

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.73%45.33%45.34%47.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.982.092.102.1850.51%47.76%47.62%45.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cleveland Guardians (Visiteur)

Prévision 54.67%1.83cote équitable
EV -1.60%
Avantage -0.888%
Kelly -2.00%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.63%54.67%54.66%55.27%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.661.751.751.8060.24%57.27%57.14%55.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -1.18%E -0.540%K -0.997%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -2.69%E -1.51%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-27 20:15
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.08%E -0.964%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.69%E -1.51%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-27 20:15
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.08%E -0.964%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.69%E -1.51%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-27 20:15
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.54%E -1.18%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.60%E -0.888%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-27 20:25
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.54%E -1.18%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.88%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-27 20:25
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.54%E -1.18%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.88%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-27 21:15
FanDuel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.90%E -1.84%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.78%E -2.15%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-27 17:45
MyBookie.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.90%E -1.84%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.78%E -2.15%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-27 20:15
DraftKings2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.90%E -1.84%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.88%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-27 20:15
Bovada2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34%EV -4.35%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.66%EV -4.33%E -2.47%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-27 19:00
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.24%E -1.83%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 20:15
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.24%E -1.83%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 20:15
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.24%E -1.83%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 20:29
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.33%E -2.47%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 20:15
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.33%E -2.47%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 20:15
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.33%E -2.47%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 20:15
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.33%E -2.47%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 20:15
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.88%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 20:15
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.42%E -3.14%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.42%E -3.14%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 17:45
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.42%E -3.14%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.42%E -3.14%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.42%E -3.14%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.42%E -3.14%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:15
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.42%E -3.14%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 20:20
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.71%E -2.74%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.33%E -2.47%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 20:15
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -5.71%E -2.74%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.42%E -3.14%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-27 20:14
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.71%E -2.74%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 17:45
Betsson2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.16%E -2.98%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.78%E -2.15%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 20:15
NordicBet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.16%E -2.98%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.78%E -2.15%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 20:15
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.24%E -1.83%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 20:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.24%E -1.83%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 20:15
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.88%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-27 20:15
ReBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.61%E -4.50%K -11.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 20:15
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.34%E -4.67%K -9.34%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.60%E -0.888%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 17:45
Unibet (FR)1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63%EV -9.79%E -4.92%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%EV -8.70%E -5.21%K -12.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-27 20:15
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -10.24%E -5.17%K -10.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.25%E -5.57%K -14.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-27 20:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 47.01%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.99%-0.1%2026-07-27 18:00
Polymarket2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-07-27 20:15
Novig2.11I 47.39%NM 46.72%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.28%1.4%2026-07-27 20:15
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%10.1%2026-07-27 20:15