L’École des cotes

Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians

2026-07-27 23:10 UTC — MLB

Résultat du match

32 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prévision 59.18%1.69cote équitable
EV -1.75%
Avantage -1.06%
Kelly -2.66%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.23%59.18%59.21%60.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.541.611.611.6664.94%62.14%62.11%60.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cleveland Guardians (Visiteur)

Prévision 40.82%2.45cote équitable
EV -1.23%
Avantage -0.507%
Kelly -0.863%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.75%40.82%40.79%41.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.342.352.4245.45%42.79%42.55%41.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (32 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 59.01%EV -1.75%E -1.06%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.99%EV -2.45%E -1.03%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-26 19:45
GTbets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -2.35%E -1.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV -1.23%E -0.507%K -0.863%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-26 18:05
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.35%E -1.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.04%E -0.851%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-26 18:05
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.35%E -1.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.04%E -0.851%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-26 18:05
BetUS1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.35%E -1.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.86%E -1.20%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-26 18:15
Fanatics1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.35%E -1.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-26 18:10
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.53%E -2.17%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-26 18:45
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.53%E -2.17%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 18:20
MyBookie.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -4.12%E -2.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -3.27%E -1.38%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-26 18:50
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.12%E -2.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 19:15
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.12%E -2.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 19:48
Fliff1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.12%E -2.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 20:15
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.12%E -2.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 19:05
TAB1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.12%E -2.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 20:25
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.71%E -2.93%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-26 18:40
Bet Right1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.71%E -2.93%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.49%E -1.92%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 18:40
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.71%E -2.93%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.31%E -2.29%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 19:35
FanDuel1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.31%E -3.32%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.04%E -0.851%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-26 18:40
Bovada1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.31%E -3.32%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.04%E -0.851%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-26 19:55
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.31%E -3.32%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 18:50
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.31%E -3.32%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 18:40
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.31%E -3.32%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 18:40
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.31%E -3.32%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 18:40
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.31%E -3.32%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 18:09
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.31%E -3.32%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 18:15
Betr (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.90%E -3.71%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 18:40
Betclic (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -5.90%E -3.71%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -5.72%E -2.47%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 18:48
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.08%E -4.51%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.86%E -1.20%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 18:40
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.08%E -4.51%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.27%E -1.38%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 18:40
ReBet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.08%E -4.51%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.16%E -3.63%K -6.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 18:05
Unibet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%EV -8.26%E -5.33%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.21%E -4.64%K -8.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 18:05
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -8.86%E -5.75%K -16.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -10.21%E -4.64%K -8.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-26 18:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-07-26 20:00
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-07-26 20:15
Novig1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-07-26 20:20
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%10.0%2026-07-26 18:10