Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds v Athletics

2026-08-06 16:40 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Predicción 59.06%1.69momio equitativo
EV -2.56%
Ventaja -1.55%
Kelly -3.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.29%59.06%59.06%59.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.621.621.6564.10%61.88%61.73%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Athletics (Visitante)

Predicción 40.94%2.44momio equitativo
EV +0.315%
Ventaja +0.128%
Kelly +0.217%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.24%40.94%40.94%41.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.232.322.302.4544.84%43.16%43.48%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 59.06%; Athletics (Visitante): 40.94%. Para Athletics (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.44. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.45, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.315%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24%EV +0.315%E +0.128%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.4%2026-08-06 00:10
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.75%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.25%EV -0.914%E -0.378%K -0.643%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-06 00:15
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -1.32%E -0.549%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-06 01:05
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -1.73%E -0.722%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-06 01:30
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-06 00:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-06 00:10
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 22:00
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 21:50
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 22:55
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 22:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 01:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.19%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 00:55
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.60%E -1.97%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 00:44
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.60%E -1.97%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 00:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.60%E -1.97%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.15%E -1.92%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -5.01%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 21:40
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.15%E -1.92%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -5.01%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 23:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.15%E -1.92%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -5.01%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 23:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.15%E -1.92%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -5.01%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 23:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.15%E -1.92%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -5.01%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 23:20
Bovada🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.73%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.27%EV -5.01%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 21:45
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.01%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 23:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -6.10%E -3.84%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -5.42%E -2.35%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 22:55
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 23:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 23:20
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 23:19
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 23:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 23:20
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.74%E -2.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 23:19
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 23:39
888sport🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 22:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 22:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 22:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 22:55
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 22:54
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 22:55
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 22:54
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 21:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 22:55
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.10%E -3.84%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.83%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 22:54
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -6.65%E -2.91%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 23:20
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.49%EV -7.06%E -3.11%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 23:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 23:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.28%E -4.64%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-05 22:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.87%E -5.05%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-05 22:00
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -7.87%E -5.05%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -8.69%E -3.90%K -7.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-05 23:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.67I 59.88%NM 59.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 40.05%-0.1%2026-08-06 00:55
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-08-06 01:30
Polymarket1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-08-05 22:40
Novig1.65I 60.61%NM 59.95%2.47I 40.49%NM 40.05%1.1%2026-08-06 00:35
ProphetX1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%1.6%2026-08-06 01:30
Matchbook1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%3.0%2026-08-06 00:15
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 58.73%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.27%9.1%2026-08-06 01:20